Land and House Price Measurement in China
Land and House Price Measurement in China
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DOI：
10.3386/w18403
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发表时间：
2012-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yongheng Deng;Joseph Gyourko;Jing Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yongheng Deng;Joseph Gyourko;Jing Wu
我们为中国35个主要市场提供首个多城市、稳定的优质地价指数。虽然各个城市的土地价格增长存在显著的异质性，但过去九年平均来看，许多市场的土地价格都在飙升，而不仅仅是沿海或沿海地区。典型的市场经历了两位数的复合年平均增长率，实际的、稳定的土地价值。2009年至2010年的经济刺激期通常会出现价格大幅飙升。土地价值增值序列的三个显著特征是它们在年频率上的强均值回归，它们的运动中有很强的共同因素，以及它们非常高的波动性。近年来，不仅是价格，而且数量也在急剧上升。在我们的35个城市样本中，通过土地拍卖提供的典型空间数量自2008年以来翻了一番。一些地方的政治经济特征，如中国共产党领导人在位的时间，与土地供应量相关。我们还研究了中国两个最著名的房价指数的质量，并得出结论，传统的享乐指数更准确地反映了中国八大主要市场的房价随时间的变化。在许多国家，重复销售指数已成为标准，但在中国等新兴市场，这种指数用处不大，因为大部分住房存量相对较新，没有进行过多次交易。“享乐指数”（hedonic index）显示，随着时间的推移，8个市场的房价涨幅要比官方公布的数据高得多。
We provide the first multi-city, constant quality land price index for 35 major markets in China. While there is meaningful heterogeneity in land price growth across cities, on average the last nine years have seen land values skyrocket in many markets, not just those on or near the coast. The typical market has experienced double-digit compound average annual growth in real, constant-quality land values. The 2009-2010 stimulus period typically saw large surges in prices. Three notable characteristics about the land value appreciation series are their strong mean reversion at annual frequencies, the strong common factor in their movement, and their very high volatility. Quantities, not just prices, have been sharply increasing in recent years. The typical amount of space supplied via land auctions in our 35 city sample has doubled since 2008. Some local political economy traits such as the time the local Chinese Communist Party leader has been in office are correlated with land supply volume.We also investigate the quality of the two most prominent house price indexes in China, and conclude that a traditional hedonic index more accurately reflects how house prices have changed over time in eight major markets in China. Repeat sales indexes have become standard in many countries, but they are not as useful in emerging markets such as China because the bulk of the housing stock is relatively new and has not traded multiple times. A hedonic index shows much higher house price growth over time that do officially published series for the eight markets examined.