POSITIVE FEEDBACKS IN THE ECONOMY
POSITIVE FEEDBACKS IN THE ECONOMY
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DOI：
10.1038/scientificamerican0290-92
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发表时间：
1990-02-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
ARTHUR, WB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ARTHUR, WB
传统的经济理论建立在收益递减的假设之上。经济行为会产生负反馈，从而导致价格和市场份额达到可预测的平衡。这种反馈往往会稳定经济，因为任何重大变化都会被它们产生的反应所抵消。 1970 年代的高油价鼓励了节能和增加石油勘探，导致 1980 年代初价格出现可预见的下降。根据传统理论，均衡标志着在这种情况下可能出现的“最佳”结果：最有效地利用和配置资源。如此令人愉快的画面往往会违背现实。在经济的许多领域，稳定力量似乎没有发挥作用。相反，正反馈会放大微小经济变化的影响；描述这种影响的经济模型与传统模型有很大不同。收益递减意味着经济有一个均衡点，但正反馈——收益递增——会产生许多可能的均衡点。无法保证特定的经济结果是从众多替代性 W 中选出的。 BRIAN AR 是斯坦福大学人口研究和经济学莫里森教授。他于 1973 年在加州大学伯克利分校获得博士学位，并拥有运筹学、经济学和数学研究生学位。直到最近，阿瑟还在圣达菲研究所休假，这是一家致力于研究复杂系统的研究所。在那里，他领导了一个由经济学家、物理学家、生物学家和其他人组成的团队，研究经济作为一个不断发展的复杂系统的行为。
Conventional economic theory is built on the assumption of di minishing returns. Economic actions engender a negative feedback that leads to a predictable equilibrium for prices and market shares. Such feedback tends to stabilize the econo my because any major changes will be offset by the very reactions they gen erate. The high oil prices of the 1970's encouraged energy conservation and increased oil exploration, precipitat ing a predictable drop in prices by the early 1980's. According to convention al theory, the equilibrium marks the" best" outcome possible under the cir cumstances: the most efficient use and allocation of resources. Such an agreeable picture often does violence to reality. In many parts of the economy, stabilizing forces appear not to operate. Instead posi tive feedback magnifies the effects of small economic shifts; the economic models that describe such effects dif fer vastly from the conventional ones. Diminishing returns imply a single equilibrium point for the economy, but positive feedback-increasing re turns-makes for many possible equi librium points. There is no guarantee that the particular economic outcome selected from among the many alter-W. BRIAN AR is Morrison Profes sor of Population Studies and Econom ics at Stanford University. He obtained his Ph. D. from the University of Califor nia, Berkeley, in 1973 and holds gradu ate degrees in operations research, eco nomics and mathematics. Until recent ly Arthur was on leave at the Santa Fe Institute, a research institute dedicated to the study of complex systems. There he directed a team of economists, physi cists, biologists and others investigating behavior of the economy as an evolving, complex system.