Modeling avian full annual cycle distribution and population trends with citizen science data
Modeling avian full annual cycle distribution and population trends with citizen science data
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DOI：
10.1002/eap.2056
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发表时间：
2020-01-08
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Kelling, Steve
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fink, Daniel;Auer, Tom;Kelling, Steve
关于物种分布、丰度以及它们如何随时间变化的信息是研究动物种群生态学和保护的核心。这方面的信息是具有挑战性的，以获得景观尺度跨越范围广泛的程度有两个主要原因。首先，影响种群的大规模进程在全年和各物种的分布范围内各不相同，需要在广泛的、有时是半球的空间范围内获得高分辨率的全年数据。其次，虽然公民科学项目可以在这些分辨率和范围内收集数据，但使用这些数据需要进行适当的分析，以解决已知的偏见来源。在这里，我们提出了一个分析框架，以解决这些挑战，并产生全年，范围广泛的分布信息，使用公民科学数据。为了说明这种方法，我们应用的框架，以木画眉（Hylocichla mustelina），一个长距离的新热带移民和物种的保护关注，使用数据从公民科学项目eBird。我们估计在整个年度周期的一系列空间尺度的发生和丰度。此外，我们生成的范围内，物种和景观特征之间的关联，以及繁殖和非繁殖季节的丰度年际趋势的年内估计。画眉的范围广泛的人口轨迹显示繁殖和非繁殖季节之间的密切对应关系，2010年至2013年期间急剧下降，2013年至2016年下降幅度较小。根据独立收集和分析的北美繁殖鸟类调查数据，繁殖季节范围内的种群轨迹也显示了这种模式。这里提供的信息填补了重要的知识空白，特别是在研究较少的迁徙和非繁殖期。更一般地说，这里提出的建模框架可以用来准确地捕捉景观尺度内和年际分布动态广泛分布，高度移动的物种。
Information on species' distributions, abundances, and how they change over time is central to the study of the ecology and conservation of animal populations. This information is challenging to obtain at landscape scales across range-wide extents for two main reasons. First, landscape-scale processes that affect populations vary throughout the year and across species' ranges, requiring high-resolution, year-round data across broad, sometimes hemispheric, spatial extents. Second, while citizen science projects can collect data at these resolutions and extents, using these data requires appropriate analysis to address known sources of bias. Here, we present an analytical framework to address these challenges and generate year-round, range-wide distributional information using citizen science data. To illustrate this approach, we apply the framework to Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), a long-distance Neotropical migrant and species of conservation concern, using data from the citizen science project eBird. We estimate occurrence and abundance across a range of spatial scales throughout the annual cycle. Additionally, we generate intra-annual estimates of the range, intra-annual estimates of the associations between species and characteristics of the landscape, and interannual trends in abundance for breeding and non-breeding seasons. The range-wide population trajectories for Wood Thrush show a close correspondence between breeding and non-breeding seasons with steep declines between 2010 and 2013 followed by shallower rates of decline from 2013 to 2016. The breeding season range-wide population trajectory based on the independently collected and analyzed North American Breeding Bird Survey data also shows this pattern. The information provided here fills important knowledge gaps for Wood Thrush, especially during the less studied migration and non-breeding periods. More generally, the modeling framework presented here can be used to accurately capture landscape scale intra- and interannual distributional dynamics for broadly distributed, highly mobile species.