Flood Hazard Pricing and Insurance Premium Differentials: Evidence From the Housing Market
Flood Hazard Pricing and Insurance Premium Differentials: Evidence From the Housing Market
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洪水灾害定价和保险费差异：来自房地产市场的证据
DOI：
10.2307/252950
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发表时间：
1990
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
W. Huth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Don N. MacDonald;Harry L. White;P. M. Taube;W. Huth
在这篇文章中，开发了一个模型，理性的消费者愿意支付边际减少的概率发生在住宅选址决策中的一个不理想的状态（洪水）。该模型采用了享乐价格梯度低概率，高损失的洪水灾害。个人可以通过位于洪水危险概率相对较低的住宅区来自我保险洪水危险，并且在所有其他条件相同的情况下，消费者应该为位于相对较低危险区域的房屋支付更多费用。位于危险区内部和外部的住房的住房价格差异和保险费之间的关系，以及不可保成本的测试。在有效市场中，财产价值差异反映了人们对危险的感知概率。位于危险区内外的房屋的销售价格差异应反映与危险发生相关的预期损失，以及任何市场确定的风险溢价（假设影响价格的所有其他因素保持不变）。如果与灾害相关的所有成本都是可保的，则可以使用与灾害相关的保险费差异来测试市场灾害定价的效率。在这篇文章中，一个模型描述了消费者的位置决定，并使用个人住房交易的数据进行估计。“具体来说，开发了一种方法来估计消费者愿意为降低城市地区洪水危害的可能性而支付的费用。
In this article, a model is developed of the rational consumer's willingness to pay for a marginal reduction in the probability of an undesirable state (flooding) occurring in the residential location decision. The model incorporates a hedonic price gradient for low-probability, high-loss flood hazards. Individuals can self-insure against flooding hazards by locating in residential areas where the probability of flooding hazard is relatively low and, all other things equal, consumers should pay more for houses located in relatively less hazardous areas. A relationship between housing price differentials and insurance premiums for housing located inside and outside of a hazard zone is developed, as well as tests for noninsurable costs. In an efficient market, property value differentials reflect the perceived probability of hazards. Sales price differentials on homes located in and out of a hazard zone should reflect the expected loss associated with the hazard occurring, as well as any market determined risk premium (assuming all other factors influencing price are held constant). If all costs associated with the hazard are insurable, the efficiency of market hazard pricing can be tested using insurance premium differentials associated with the hazard. In this article, a model characterizing the consumer's location decision is specified and estimated using data on individual housing transactions.' Specifically, a methodology is developed for estimating consumer willingness to pay for a reduction in the probability of flooding hazard in an urban area.
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
ROSEN, S
通讯作者：
ROSEN, S