Mapping Monkeypox Transmission Risk through Time and Space in the Congo Basin
Mapping Monkeypox Transmission Risk through Time and Space in the Congo Basin
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0074816
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发表时间：
2013-09-05
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Peterson, A. Townsend
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nakazawa, Yoshinori;Lash, R. Ryan;Peterson, A. Townsend
猴痘是刚果盆地地区的一个主要公共卫生问题，近年来报告的人间病例发生模式不断变化。这一趋势是否是由于更好的监测和检测方法、接种疫苗与未接种疫苗的人群比例降低或环境条件变化造成的，目前尚不清楚。我们的目标是研究环境和猴痘事件在刚果盆地的传播之间的潜在相关性。我们创建了生态位模型的基础上，人类病例报告的刚果盆地世界卫生组织在天花根除运动结束时，在同一时期的遥感归一化差异植被指数数据集。这些模型以高置信度预测了猴痘发生的独立空间子集;然后将模型投影到21世纪的并行环境数据集上，以创建当今的猴痘适宜性地图。人类猴痘感染的最新趋势与整个刚果盆地的广泛环境变化有关。我们的研究结果表明，生态位模型提供了有用的工具，用于识别适合传播的地区，即使是鲜为人知的疾病，如猴痘。
Monkeypox is a major public health concern in the Congo Basin area, with changing patterns of human case occurrences reported in recent years. Whether this trend results from better surveillance and detection methods, reduced proportions of vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated human populations, or changing environmental conditions remains unclear. Our objective is to examine potential correlations between environment and transmission of monkeypox events in the Congo Basin. We created ecological niche models based on human cases reported in the Congo Basin by the World Health Organization at the end of the smallpox eradication campaign, in relation to remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index datasets from the same time period. These models predicted independent spatial subsets of monkeypox occurrences with high confidence; models were then projected onto parallel environmental datasets for the 2000s to create present-day monkeypox suitability maps. Recent trends in human monkeypox infection are associated with broad environmental changes across the Congo Basin. Our results demonstrate that ecological niche models provide useful tools for identification of areas suitable for transmission, even for poorly-known diseases like monkeypox.