Parameter estimation and site-specific calibration of disease transmission models.
Parameter estimation and site-specific calibration of disease transmission models.
复制标题
疾病传播模型的参数估计和特定地点校准。
DOI：
10.1007/978-1-4419-6064-1_7
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hubbard,A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Spear,RobertC;Hubbard,A
利用数学模型在地方范围内制定控制传染病的管理办法，要求模型的结构和参数反映在该范围内的传播情况。可供当地模型参考的数据通常很稀少，来自不同的来源，格式也不同。数据的这些特性和传输模型的复杂结构导致了许多不同的参数集，这些参数集在现场数据的分辨率内模拟系统的局部行为，即使对于固定结构的模型也是如此。在实际和理论层面上描述了一种贝叶斯方法，它涉及先验参数分布的分配和半定量拟合优度标准的定义，该标准本质上是对可观测输出的先验。蒙特卡罗模拟用于从后验参数空间生成样本。这个空间通常比先前的空间有更多的约束，但具有由数学模型诱导的高度复杂的多变量结构。将该方法应用于中国西南部一个村庄的血吸虫病传播模型，发现模型的校正对有效繁殖数Reff敏感。这一发现对蒙特卡罗分析的计算时间和用于有效校准传输控制的模型的现场数据的规范都有影响。
The use of mathematical models for developing management options for controlling infectious diseases at a local scale requires that the structure and parameters of the model reflect the realities of transmission at that scale. Data available to inform local models are generally sparse and come from diverse sources and in diverse formats. These characteristics of the data and the complex structure of transmission models, result in many different parameter sets which mimic the local behavior of the system to within the resolution of field data, even for a model of fixed structure. A Bayesian approach is described, at both a practical and a theoretical level, which involves the assignment of prior parameter distributions and the definition of a semi-quantitative goodness of fit criteria which are essentially priors on the observable outputs. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate samples from the posterior parameter space. This space is generally much more constrained than the prior space, but with a highly complex multivariate structure induced by the mathematical model. In applying the approach to a model of schistosomiasis transmission in a village in southwestern China, calibration of the model was found to be sensitive to the effective reproductive number, Reff. This finding has implications both for computation time for the Monte Carlo analysis and for the specification of field data to efficiently calibrate the model for transmission control.