Unprecedented warming revealed from multi-proxy reconstruction of temperature in southern China for the past 160 years
Unprecedented warming revealed from multi-proxy reconstruction of temperature in southern China for the past 160 years
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DOI：
10.1007/s00376-017-6228-x
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发表时间：
2017-06
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Yang Liu;Jingyun Zheng;Z. Hao;Xuezhen Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yang Liu;Jingyun Zheng;Z. Hao;Xuezhen Zhang
利用中国文献记载的降雪南限、树轮宽度年表和树轮稳定氧同位素（δ 18 O），采用信号分解与合成方法，重建了1850-2009年中国南方年气温异常。结果表明，1871-2009年的线性趋势为0.47°C（100年）− 1，两个最快的变暖间隔发生在1877-1938年和1968-2007年，分别为0.125°C（10年）− 1和0.258°C（10年）−1。年代际变化表明，1910 - 1930年代的温和暖期气温明显低于1980 - 2000年代，表明1980年代以来的暖化是过去160年来前所未有的，尽管2000年代存在暖化间断。此外，从19世纪60年代开始有一个快速冷却，随后是一个寒冷的间隔，直到19世纪90年代初，最冷的年份是1892年和1893年。从1940年代到1960年代末，气温也略有下降。本研究提供了一个独立的案例来验证过去160年的全球变暖及其最近的间断，因为代理数据不受城市化的影响。
Using the southern limit of snowfall recorded in Chinese documents, chronologies of tree-ring width, and tree-ring stable oxygen isotope (δ18O), the annual temperature anomaly in southern China during 1850–2009 is reconstructed using the method of signal decomposition and synthesis. The results show that the linear trend was 0.47°C (100 yr)−1over 1871–2009, and the two most rapid warming intervals occurred in 1877–1938 and 1968–2007, at rates of 0.125°C (10 yr)−1and 0.258°C (10 yr)−1, respectively. The decadal variation shows that the temperature in the moderate warm interval of the 1910s–1930s was notably lower than that of the 1980s–2000s, which suggests that the warming since the 1980s was unprecedented for the past 160 years, though a warming hiatus existed in the 2000s. Additionally, there was a rapid cooling starting from the 1860s, followed by a cold interval until the early 1890s, with the coldest years in 1892 and 1893. A slight temperature decline was also found from the 1940s to the late 1960s. This study provides an independent case to validate the global warming for the past 160 years and its hiatus recently, because the proxy data are not affected by urbanization.