Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival After Resection of Pulmonary Metastases from Colorectal Cancer at a Single Center
Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival After Resection of Pulmonary Metastases from Colorectal Cancer at a Single Center
复制标题
验证单中心结直肠癌肺转移瘤切除后预测总生存期的列线图
DOI：
10.1007/s00268-010-0745-4
复制
发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
T. Mitsudomi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Y. Kanemitsu;Tomoyuki Kato;K. Komori;T. Fukui;T. Mitsudomi
背景本研究的目的是在单个中心验证生存列线图，该列线图最初是在日本多个机构开发的，该列线图结合了现成的术前变量来预测结直肠癌肺转移切除后的总体生存率。方法使用来自日本爱知癌症中心前瞻性肺转移数据库的外部患者队列来测试结直肠癌列线图肺转移的有效性。该队列包括 58 名在 1999 年 1 月至 2005 年 12 月期间接受手术的连续患者。计算每位患者 3 年和 5 年总生存率的列线图预测，并与实际生存率进行比较。一致性指数用作准确性测量。结果所有必要变量的数据可供所有患者使用。在最后一次随访时，30 名患者还活着，中位随访时间为 39 个月（范围为 5-94）个月。 1年、2年、3年和5年总生存率分别为96.6%、84.5%、70.5%和48.9%。列线图一致性指数为 0.81，对 3 年和 5 年总生存率均进行了出色的校准。结论结直肠癌列线图对肺转移的高预测准确性表明，这种源自多个机构的预测工具可以应用于单个中心的一小群患者。
BackgroundThe goal of this study was to validate a survival nomogram at a single center, originally developed at multiple institutions in Japan, which combines readily available preoperative variables to predict overall survival after resection of pulmonary metastases from colorectal cancer.MethodsAn external patient cohort from a prospective pulmonary metastases database at the Aichi Cancer Center in Japan was used to test the validity of the pulmonary metastases from a colorectal cancer nomogram. The cohort included 58 consecutive patients who had surgery between January 1999 and December 2005. Nomogram predictions for 3- and 5-year overall survival were calculated for each patient and compared with actual survival. The concordance index was used as an accuracy measure.ResultsData for all necessary variables were available for all patients. At the last follow-up, 30 patients were alive, with a median follow-up of 39 (range, 5–94) months. The 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 96.6, 84.5, 70.5, and 48.9%, respectively. The nomogram concordance index was 0.81 with excellent calibration for both 3- and 5-year overall survival rates.ConclusionsThe high predictive accuracy of pulmonary metastases from a colorectal cancer nomogram demonstrates that this predictive tool derived at multiple institutions can be applied to a small cohort of patients in a single center.
影响因子：
45.3
作者：
Kattan, MW;Leung, DHY;Brennan, MF
通讯作者：
Brennan, MF