Directional changes in ecological communities and social-ecological systems: A framework for prediction based on Alaskan examples
Directional changes in ecological communities and social-ecological systems: A framework for prediction based on Alaskan examples
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DOI：
10.1086/509047
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发表时间：
2006-12-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Naylor, Rosamond L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chapin, F. Stuart, III;Robards, Martin D.;Naylor, Rosamond L.
在这篇文章中，我们扩展了群落预测理论，提出了在一个方向变化的世界中预测群落结构的七个假设。前三种解决了已经得到充分研究的群落对环境和生态变化的反应：当扰动导致限制土壤或沉积物资源、优势或关键物种或影响群落补充的扰动制度属性发生重大变化时，生态群落最有可能表现出结构上的阈值变化。另外四个假设涉及社会-生态相互作用，适用于生态群落和社会-生态系统。人类对短期和当地成本和利益的反应往往导致具有意外长期影响的人类行动，特别是那些远离决策地点或地理上分散的行动。政策通常基于生态系统服务的过去状况，而不是预期的未来趋势。最后，加强人类行为与社会生态后果之间负反馈的制度可以通过对公共生态系统服务更有效的管理来减少人类影响。由于人类在改变生态系统和生态系统服务方面发挥着巨大的作用，检验和改进社会生态假设作为制定长期生态系统恢复力适当政策的基础尤为重要。
In this article we extend the theory of community prediction by presenting seven hypotheses for predicting community structure in a directionally changing world. The first three address well-studied community responses to environmental and ecological change: ecological communities are most likely to exhibit threshold changes in structure when perturbations cause large changes in limiting soil or sediment resources, dominant or keystone species, or attributes of disturbance regime that influence community recruitment. Four additional hypotheses address social-ecological interactions and apply to both ecological communities and social-ecological systems. Human responsiveness to short-term and local costs and benefits often leads to human actions with unintended long-term impacts, particularly those that are far from the site of decision making or are geographically dispersed. Policies are usually based on past conditions of ecosystem services rather than expected future trends. Finally, institutions that strengthen negative feedbacks between human actions and social-ecological consequences can reduce human impacts through more responsive (and thus more effective) management of public ecosystem services. Because of the large role that humans play in modifying ecosystems and ecosystem services, it is particularly important to test and improve social-ecological hypotheses as a basis for shaping appropriate policies for long-term ecosystem resilience.