A Continental-Scale Validation of Ecosystem Service Models-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.1007/s10021-019-00380-y

发表时间：

2019-04

期刊：

Ecosystems

影响因子：

3.7

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

环境科学与生态学2区

文献类型：

作者：

S. Willcock;D. Hooftman;S. Balbi;R. Blanchard;T. Dawson;P. O’Farrell;T. Hickler;M. Hudson;M. Lindeskog;Javier Martínez-López;M. Mulligan;B. Reyers;C. Shackleton;N. Sitas;F. Villa;Sophie M. Watts;F. Eigenbrod;J. Bullock

面对环境退化，世界各国政府都在制定保护生态系统服务的政策。存在许多ES模型来支持这些政策，但它们通常没有得到很好的验证，特别是在大范围内，这损害了它们的可信度。为了解决这一差距，我们描述了一项关于五个ES的多个模型的研究，我们以前所未有的规模对撒哈拉以南非洲的1675个数据点进行了验证。我们发现，现有模型可以很好地预测潜在的ES(碳和水的生物物理供应)。通过增加有关人口密度的信息，这些潜在的生态系统模型也可以用作实现生态系统的新模型的输入(使用木炭、柴火、放牧资源和水)。我们发现，增加模型复杂性可以改善对潜在和已实现ES的估计，这表明开发更详细的ES模型将是有益的。此外，在85%的情况下，人口密度本身对已实现的ES的预测与ES模型一样好或更好，这表明主要决定当前ES使用模式的是需求，而不是供应。我们的研究证明了ES模型验证的可行性，即使在撒哈拉以南非洲等数据匮乏的地区也是如此。我们的工作还表明，在ES模型的需求方面显然需要更多的工作，而且模型验证在为支持寻求实现可持续发展以支持人类福祉的政策提供更坚实的基础方面具有重要意义。

Faced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.

A Continental-Scale Validation of Ecosystem Service Models

文献摘要

相似文献