A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid
A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid
复制标题
用于评估气候对电网的长期和短期影响的多模型框架
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119193
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
A. Miara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Cohen;A. Dyreson;S. Turner;V. Tidwell;N. Voisin;A. Miara
气候变化影响电网的许多方面，但以往的工作和行业实践往往忽略了气候变化的潜在影响，或者只考虑单一影响或单独考虑个别影响。每个电网面临的挑战各不相同，包括适应长期趋势，如温度和降水的变化，或可能增加频率或强度的短期事件，如干旱或风暴。在这里，我们提出了一个多模型框架，旨在分析长期和短期气候影响的组合影响。该框架将产能扩张和生产成本模型与水文模型和未来气候情景数据相结合，以高空间、时间和过程分辨率分析替代气候和能源未来。我们构建并评估了一套探索气候对产能投资影响的模拟情景的结果，并使用小时调度模型在不同的干旱和负载条件下对由此产生的未来基础设施进行了压力测试。我们通过美国西部互联项目的案例研究来展示这种方法，在该项目中，气候影响取决于温度诱导负荷、水电用水可用性、技术竞争力和需求灵活性之间的相互作用。2038年发电能力变化范围为−8.5-16.6GW，2038年输电能力变化范围为−1-2GW。产能增加是由更高的温度带来的更高负荷推动的，而在未来水电可用性更高和需求灵活性增加的情况下，可以实现产能削减。从2018年到2038年，需要增加容量的场景额外成本为50-170亿美元(折扣)；然而，容量减少的场景成本降低了10-180亿美元。对四个2038年基础设施进行的压力测试表明，确定的系统能够服务至少99.999%的负载和99.96%的储备。然而，干旱和意想不到的高负荷条件可能会导致应对我们没有建模的应急事件的能力降低。尽管这些结果是特定于系统和情景的，但它们强调了在长期规划工作中同时考虑多种气候变化影响的重要性，并展示了一种可灵活应用于任何系统和气候变化问题集的多模型、多尺度方法。
Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. We constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from −8.5–16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from −1–2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $5–$17 billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $1–$18 billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.