Seasonality, Timing, and Climate Drivers of Influenza Activity Worldwide
Seasonality, Timing, and Climate Drivers of Influenza Activity Worldwide
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DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jis467
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发表时间：
2012-09-15
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Bresee, Joseph
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baumgartner, Eduardo Azziz;Dao, Christine N.;Bresee, Joseph
背景虽然流感是一种疫苗可预防的疾病，每年造成重大疾病负担，但热带国家的病毒活动数据有限。我们分析了公开的流感数据，以更好地了解流感病毒的全球传播。我们回顾了开源的、实验室确认的流感监测数据。对于每个国家，我们从流感检测阳性的年度样本数量中提取了每个流行病学周流感检测阳性样本的百分比数据。流感季节的开始被定义为检测呈阳性的样本比例保持在年度平均值以上的第一周。我们使用回归模型评估了检测阳性样本的百分比与月平均温度之间的关系。我们确定了来自85个国家的实验室确认的流感病毒感染数据。热带国家（41%）每年超过一个流感流行期的情况比温带国家（15%）更常见。全年活动（即每周鉴定的流感病毒提交>= 10份标本）发生在有可用数据的43个温带国家中的3个（7%），6个亚热带国家中的1个（17%）和30个热带国家中的11个（37%）（P = 0.006）。阳性率与低温相关（P = 0.001）。每年流感流行的时间模式一致，取决于气候。
Background. Although influenza is a vaccine-preventable disease that annually causes substantial disease burden, data on virus activity in tropical countries are limited. We analyzed publicly available influenza data to better understand the global circulation of influenza viruses.Methods. We reviewed open-source, laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data. For each country, we abstracted data on the percentage of samples testing positive for influenza each epidemiologic week from the annual number of samples testing positive for influenza. The start of influenza season was defined as the first week when the proportion of samples that tested positive remained above the annual mean. We assessed the relationship between percentage of samples testing positive and mean monthly temperature with use of regression models.Findings. We identified data on laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection from 85 countries. More than one influenza epidemic period per year was more common in tropical countries (41%) than in temperate countries (15%). Year-round activity (ie, influenza virus identified each week having >= 10 specimens submitted) occurred in 3 (7%) of 43 temperate, 1 (17%) of 6 subtropical, and 11 (37%) of 30 tropical countries with available data (P = .006). Percentage positivity was associated with low temperature (P = .001).Interpretation. Annual influenza epidemics occur in consistent temporal patterns depending on climate.