The probability of HIV infection in a new host and its reduction with microbicides
The probability of HIV infection in a new host and its reduction with microbicides
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.mbs.2008.03.005
复制
发表时间：
2008-07-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Perelson, Alan S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tuckwell, Henry C.;Shipman, Patrick D.;Perelson, Alan S.
我们使用一个简单的数学模型来估计一个或多个HIV病毒粒子成功感染靶细胞的概率及其时间依赖性。对于将给定数量的病毒粒子转移到靶细胞，我们推导出感染概率P-inf的表达式。因此，在针刺转移的情况下，我们确定了P-inf和暴露后预防(PEP)的大致时间窗口。对于异性传播，在传播过程更复杂的情况下，采用一个参数伽马来衡量感染过程的强度。对于较小的伽马值，P-inf从6×10(-5)到0.93或从7.82×10(-6)到0.29，其中较小的数字是100个病毒粒子的转移，上面的数字是440万个病毒粒子的转移。我们估计了一种特定药效的杀菌剂导致的P-inf的降低。结果发现，当转移的病毒粒子数小于约10(5)时，病毒减少率可能与所述大致相同，但当病毒载量超过该数字时，减少率降至零。结论是，针刺事件发生后，应立即使用PEP。此外，应鼓励杀微生物剂制造商调查和报告其对各种转移的病毒负担的有效性。(C)2008 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。
We use a simple mathematical model to estimate the probability and its time dependence that one or more HIV virions successfully infect target cells. For the transfer of a given number of virions to target cells we derive expressions for the probability P-inf, of infection. Thus, in the case of needlestick transfer we determine P-inf and an approximate time window for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). For heterosexual transmission, where the transfer process is more complicated, a parameter gamma is employed which measures the strength of the infection process. For the smaller value of gamma, P-inf is from 6 x 10(-5) to 0.93 or from 7.82 x 10(-6) to 0.29, where the lower figures are for the transfer of 100 virions and the upper figures are for the transfer of 4.4 million virions. We estimate the reductions in P-inf which occur with a microbicide of a given efficacy. It is found that reductions may be approximately as stated when the number of virions transferred is less than about 10(5), but declines to zero for viral loads above that number. It is concluded that PEP should always be applied immediately after a needlestick incident. Further, manufacturers of microbicides should be encouraged to investigate and report their effectiveness at various transferred viral burdens. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.