Clustering Vector Autoregressive Models: Capturing Qualitative Differences in Within-Person Dynamics.

Clustering Vector Autoregressive Models: Capturing Qualitative Differences in Within-Person Dynamics.
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DOI:
10.3389/fpsyg.2016.01540
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发表时间:
2016
影响因子:
3.8
通讯作者:
Ceulemans E
Ceulemans E
中科院分区:
心理学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Bulteel K;Tuerlinckx F;Brose A;Ceulemans E

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在心理学中,研究人体内的多变量动态过程正在取得进展。一种越来越常用的方法是向量自回归(VAR)建模,其中每个变量在前一个时间点对所有变量(包括其自身)进行回归。这种方法揭示了相关变量的系统在时间上的动态变化。接下来的问题是如何分析多个人的数据,以掌握个人内部动态的相似性和个体差异。我们关注的是这些差异本质上是定性的情况,这意味着可以识别人的子群体。提出了一种根据VAR回归权值对人进行聚类的方法,同时对聚类内的所有人拟合一个共享VAR模型。在仿真研究中对该算法的性能进行了评价。此外,通过将该方法应用于年轻女性抑郁相关症状的多变量时间序列数据来说明该方法。
In psychology, studying multivariate dynamical processes within a person is gaining ground. An increasingly often used method is vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling, in which each variable is regressed on all variables (including itself) at the previous time points. This approach reveals the temporal dynamics of a system of related variables across time. A follow-up question is how to analyze data of multiple persons in order to grasp similarities and individual differences in within-person dynamics. We focus on the case where these differences are qualitative in nature, implying that subgroups of persons can be identified. We present a method that clusters persons according to their VAR regression weights, and simultaneously fits a shared VAR model to all persons within a cluster. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated in a simulation study. Moreover, the method is illustrated by applying it to multivariate time series data on depression-related symptoms of young women.
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