Post-civil war democratization: promotion of democracy in post-civil war states, 1946–2005
Post-civil war democratization: promotion of democracy in post-civil war states, 1946–2005
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内战后民主化：在内战后国家促进民主，1946-2005
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Joshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Joshi
内战后民主化是在内战后国家建立可持续和平的关键因素。然而，对民主过渡和生存的研究表明，内战后的环境既不适合民主过渡，也不适合民主的生存。这种冷淡可能是由于内战后的环境是有争议的。内战结束后，前主角担心他们的安全，也想保护他们的政治和经济利益。本研究的中心论点是，在政府和反叛组织之间存在稳定的权力平衡的情况下，前竞争对手可以同意向民主过渡；这种平衡消除了可能鼓励一方或双方恢复武装冲突的那种安全困境。这种平衡应该确保获得政治权力和经济资源。本研究确定了有助于在前主角之间建立权力平衡的因素以及影响其稳定性的因素。这些因素的存在应该影响到前主角的决定，即如果他们同意在内战结束后向民主过渡，他们是否能够实现其政治和经济利益。基于这一理论论点，我推导出了经验上可检验的假设。在进行的生存分析中，我找到了对理论论点的支持。这项研究的结果具有一定的政策意义。
Post-civil war democratization is a critical element of building sustainable peace in post-civil war states. Yet studies of democratic transition and survival suggest that the post-civil war environment is not hospitable to either the transition toward or the survival of democracy. This inhospitality may be due to the fact that post-civil war environments are contentious. After a civil war, the former protagonists fear for their security and also want to protect their political and economic interests. The central argument of this study is that former rivals can agree to a transition toward democracy to the extent that a stable balance of power exists between the government and rebel groups; a balance that eliminates the sort of security dilemma that would encourage one or both parties to resume armed conflict. Such a balance should ensure access to political power and economic resources. This study identifies factors that contribute to the establishment of a balance of power between former protagonists and factors that affect its stability. The presence of these factors should affect the decision of former protagonists on whether or not they can achieve their political and economic interests if they agree to a transition toward democracy once the civil war ends. Based on this theoretical argument, I have derived empirically testable hypotheses. In the survival analysis performed, I find support for the theoretical arguments. The findings of this study have some policy implications.