A Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Alternative Device Configurations for Aviation‐Checked Baggage Security Screening
A Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Alternative Device Configurations for Aviation‐Checked Baggage Security Screening
复制标题
航空托运行李安检替代设备配置的成本效益分析
作者：
S. Jacobson;Tamana Karnani;J. Kobza;L. Ritchie
2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击事件使航空安全发生了巨大变化。截至2003年初，估计已部署了1 100个爆炸物探测系统和6 000个爆炸物痕迹探测机，以确保在美国所有商业机场对托运行李进行100%的检查。部署和操作此类设备的高昂成本对运输安全管理局来说是一个严重的问题。本文评估了目前用于检查托运行李的爆炸物检测技术的成本效益以及未来可能使用的新技术。考虑单器械和双器械系统。特别是，在各种情况下使用这些设备进行100%托运行李筛查的预期年度直接成本，并研究了使用单设备和双设备策略之间的权衡。还获得了在100%托运行李检查的不同托运行李检查场景下的预期成功威胁数量。最后，分析了文献中提出的基于风险的筛查策略。报告的结果表明，对于现有的安全设置，使用当前的设备成本和概率参数，单设备系统的成本更低，并且由于第二个设备影响警报或明确决策的方式，因此成功威胁的预期数量比两个设备系统少。基于风险的方法被发现有可能显着提高安全性。引入的成本模型为航空托运行李安全检查的替代设备配置的成本效益分析提供了一个有效的工具。
The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 have resulted in dramatic changes in aviation security. As of early 2003, an estimated 1,100 explosive detection systems (EDS) and 6,000 explosive trace detection machines (ETD) have been deployed to ensure 100% checked baggage screening at all commercial airports throughout the United States. The prohibitive costs associated with deploying and operating such devices is a serious issue for the Transportation Security Administration. This article evaluates the cost effectiveness of the explosive detection technologies currently deployed to screen checked baggage as well as new technologies that could be used in the future. Both single‐device and two‐device systems are considered. In particular, the expected annual direct cost of using these devices for 100% checked baggage screening under various scenarios is obtained and the tradeoffs between using single‐ and two‐device strategies are studied. The expected number of successful threats under the different checked baggage screening scenarios with 100% checked baggage screening is also obtained. Lastly, a risk‐based screening strategy proposed in the literature is analyzed. The results reported suggest that for the existing security setup, with current device costs and probability parameters, single‐device systems are less costly and have fewer expected number of successful threats than two‐device systems due to the way the second device affects the alarm or clear decision. The risk‐based approach is found to have the potential to significantly improve security. The cost model introduced provides an effective tool for the execution of cost‐benefit analyses of alternative device configurations for aviation‐checked baggage security screening.