Projecting future changes in element concentrations of approximately 100 untreated discharges from legacy mines in Japan by a hierarchical log-linear model
Projecting future changes in element concentrations of approximately 100 untreated discharges from legacy mines in Japan by a hierarchical log-linear model
复制标题
通过分层对数线性模型预测日本遗留矿山约 100 个未经处理的排放物的元素浓度的未来变化
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147500
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Yasutaka Tetsuo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Iwasaki Yuichi;Fukaya Keiichi;Fuchida Shigeshi;Matsumoto Shinji;Araoka Daisuke;Tokoro Chiharu;Yasutaka Tetsuo
了解矿井排水中镉等元素浓度的未来变化（可能造成严重的环境影响）对于战略性优化此类排水的处理和管理至关重要。在本研究中，根据日本遗留矿山 99 个未经处理的排水系统 17 年（2003 年至 2019 年）的数据，我们开发了一种贝叶斯分层对数线性模型，该模型可以捕获各个矿山排水系统中七种元素（包括六种金属（镉、铅、砷、铜、锌、铁和锰））浓度的时间变化。我们还预测了未来的变化，以了解全国的未来趋势。建模结果表明，2003年至2019年期间，虽然在所有评估的流域中大多数元素都观察到总体下降趋势，但在许多矿井流域中这些元素的浓度下降并不明显（个别元素占流域的5%–28%）；此外，未来 100 年元素浓度低于全国排水标准的矿井排水数量的增加可能会受到限制（例如，按中值估计，锌和铁的矿井排水量约为 10 个）。这些结果对未来管理矿井排水的策略具有重要意义：假设矿井排水的元素浓度将始终下降，或者这些排水在不久的将来将满足排水标准（许可证），这可能过于乐观。
Understanding future changes in the concentrations of elements such as Cd in mine drainages, which can cause severe environmental impacts, is crucial to strategically optimize the treatment and management of such drainages. In this study, on the basis of 17-year data (2003–2019) for 99 untreated drainages from legacy mines in Japan, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical log-linear model that can capture temporal changes in the concentrations of seven elements including six metals (Cd, Pb, As, Cu, Zn, Fe, and Mn) in individual mine drainages. We also projected future changes to understand the prospective trends nationwide. The modeling results showed that, during 2003–2019, although overall decreasing trends were observed for most elements across all the drainages evaluated, decreases in the concentrations of these elements were not evident in many mine drainages (5%–28% of drainages for individual elements); in addition, any rise in the number of mine drainages with element concentrations below nationwide drainage standards over the next 100 years will likely be limited (e.g., approximately 10 drainages for Zn and Fe at median estimates). These results have significant implications for future strategies to manage mine drainages: it is probably too optimistic to assume that the element concentrations of mine drainages will always decrease, or that these drainages will satisfy drainage standards (permits) in the not so distant future.