Explaining changes in perceived wildfire risk related to the mountain pine beetle outbreak in north central Colorado
Explaining changes in perceived wildfire risk related to the mountain pine beetle outbreak in north central Colorado
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108080
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发表时间：
2021-08-23
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Bass，Martha
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qin，Hua;Brenkert-Smith，Hannah;Bass，Martha
风险感知的纵向研究虽然在不断发展，但仍然是风险分析研究的一个不足领域。以自然资源为基础的社区为分析动态风险认知和相关的社会生态过程提供了一个关键背景。自20世纪90年代中期以来，山地松甲虫（MPB）的爆发已经影响了科罗拉多中北部大约340万英亩的森林。由于疫情的爆发，地貌发生了缓慢的变化，这使其成为一个相关的案例研究，以审查随着时间的推移对野火和森林风险的看法。在2018年，我们复制并扩大了2007年的居民邮件调查，内容是关于科罗拉多中北部九个社区对MPB疫情的当地反应。利用这些研究社区的初始和后续调查数据，我们研究了不断变化的野火风险认知及其与当地人与自然相互作用各个方面的关系。纵向调查表明，除了森林火灾和倒下的树木，所有森林风险的看法在两个研究阶段下降。在2018年的调查中，受访者还表示，野火发生的可能性增加，野火可能造成的损害的严重程度增加，以及对野火危害的普遍担忧增加。分析表明，不断变化的野火风险认知与一些解释变量和个人特征密切相关。较高水平的感知树木死亡率，社区互动和沟通，以及个人行动，以应对森林风险始终与更大的可能性，表明增加野火风险的看法。在一般情况下，社区的社会脆弱性，感知树木的重新生长，与当地管理实体的满意度，年龄呈负相关的可能性，有升高的火灾风险的看法，而男性和森林相关的职业与相对较低的几率报告增加感知野火风险。变化的重要影响因素也各不相同的认知和情感层面的野火风险感知。研究结果对森林风险相关领域的概念方法、管理和政策以及社会生态指示和分析具有重要意义。
Longitudinal studies of risk perception, while growing, remain an understudied area of risk analysis research. Natural resource-based communities provide a key backdrop for analyzing dynamic risk perceptions and related social-ecological processes. Since the mid-1990s, a mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak has affected roughly 3.4 million acres of north central Colorado forests. Slow-moving landscape changes have taken place as a result of the outbreak, making it a relevant case study in which to examine wildfire and forest risk perceptions over time. In 2018, we replicated and expanded a 2007 mail survey of residents about local response to the MPB outbreak in nine north central Colorado communities. Using the initial and follow-up survey data from these study communities, we examined the changing wildfire risk perception and its relationships with various aspects of local human–nature interactions. The longitudinal surveys showed that perceptions of all forest risks except for forest fire and falling trees declined across the two study phases. Respondents in the 2018 survey also indicated increases in perceived likelihood of a wildfire, perceived severity of possible wildfire damage, and general concern about wildfire hazard. The analysis suggested that evolving wildfire risk perception was strongly associated with a number of explanatory variables and personal characteristics. Higher levels of perceived tree mortality, community interaction and communication, and individual actions in response to forest risks were consistently related to greater odds of indicating increased wildfire risk perception. In general, community social vulnerability, perceived tree re-growth, satisfaction with local management entities, and age were negatively related to the likelihood of having elevated perceptions of fire risk, whereas males and forest-related occupations were associated with relatively lower odds of reporting increases in perceived wildfire risk. Significant influencing factors for change also varied across the cognitive and affective dimensions of wildfire risk perception. Findings of this research have important implications for conceptual approaches, management and policy, as well as social-ecological indication and analysis in forest risk related areas.