Variations in large‑scale tropical cyclone genesis factors over the western North Pacific in the PMIP3 last millennium simulations
Variations in large‑scale tropical cyclone genesis factors over the western North Pacific in the PMIP3 last millennium simulations
复制标题
PMIP3上千年模拟中西北太平洋大规模热带气旋成因因素的变化
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-016-3120-9
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Zhongshi Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qing yan;Ting Wei;Zhongshi Zhang
Investigation of past tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP) is potentially helpful to enable better understanding of future TC behaviors. In this study, we examine variations in large-scale environmental factors important to TC genesis in the last millennium simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3). The results show that potential intensity, a theoretical prediction of the maximum TC intensity, is increased relative to the last millennium in the north part of the WNP in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950–1200 AD) while it is decreased in the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1600–1850 AD). Vertical wind shear that generally inhibits TC genesis is enhanced (reduced) to the south of 20°N and is reduced (enhanced) to the north in the MCA (LIA). Relative humidity (at 600 hPa) that measures the mid-tropospheric moisture content broadly shows an increase (decrease) in the MCA (LIA). A genesis potential index indicates that conditions are generally favorable (unfavorable) for TC formation in the WNP in the MCA (LIA), especially in the northern part. Taking changes in steering flows into account, there may be an increasing (decreasing) favorability for storm strikes in East Asia in the MCA (LIA). The estimated TC activity is consistent with the geological proxies in Japan, but contradicts with the typhoon records in southern China and Taiwan. This model-data discrepancy is attributed to the limitations in both simulations and reconstructions.
