Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions
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DOI：
10.1029/2012jd017607
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发表时间：
2012-09-06
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Stenchikov, Georgiy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Driscoll, Simon;Bozzo, Alessio;Stenchikov, Georgiy
对提交给耦合模型比对项目 5 (CMIP5) 数据库的气候模型模拟大型热带火山喷发后北半球冬季气候的能力进行了评估。当火山喷发产生硫酸盐气溶胶进入热带平流层并通过平流层环流扩散时，不仅会导致全球平均对流层变冷，还会导致平流层下部局部升温，从而引起重大动力反馈。观测结果显示，在接下来的一两个北半球（NH）冬季期间，平流层和地表响应较低，这类似于北大西洋涛动（NAO）的正相位。对代表 19 世纪和 20 世纪热带喷发的 13 个 CMIP5 模型进行的模拟进行了研究，重点关注与北半球冬季大规模环流相关的大规模区域影响。这些模型通常无法捕捉喷发后的 NH 动态响应。它们不能充分模拟观测到的火山后加强的北半球极涡、正 NAO 或北半球欧亚变暖模式，而且往往高估热带对流层的冷却。每个模型的 NAO 指数的叠加时代分析证实了这些发现。该研究证实了之前的类似评估，并对当前气候模型模拟全球环流变率主要模式对外部强迫的响应的能力提出了担忧。这也关系到评估大气对平流层注入粒子的响应的地球工程模型研究的准确性。
The ability of the climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) database to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter climate following a large tropical volcanic eruption is assessed. When sulfate aerosols are produced by volcanic injections into the tropical stratosphere and spread by the stratospheric circulation, it not only causes globally averaged tropospheric cooling but also a localized heating in the lower stratosphere, which can cause major dynamical feedbacks. Observations show a lower stratospheric and surface response during the following one or two Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Simulations from 13 CMIP5 models that represent tropical eruptions in the 19th and 20th century are examined, focusing on the large-scale regional impacts associated with the large-scale circulation during the NH winter season. The models generally fail to capture the NH dynamical response following eruptions. They do not sufficiently simulate the observed post-volcanic strengthened NH polar vortex, positive NAO, or NH Eurasian warming pattern, and they tend to overestimate the cooling in the tropical troposphere. The findings are confirmed by a superposed epoch analysis of the NAO index for each model. The study confirms previous similar evaluations and raises concern for the ability of current climate models to simulate the response of a major mode of global circulation variability to external forcings. This is also of concern for the accuracy of geoengineering modeling studies that assess the atmospheric response to stratosphere-injected particles.