Planning for an Uncertain Future: Climate Change Sensitivity Assessment toward Adaptation Planning for Public Water Supply
Planning for an Uncertain Future: Climate Change Sensitivity Assessment toward Adaptation Planning for Public Water Supply
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规划不确定的未来：公共供水适应规划的气候变化敏感性评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Burian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Bardsley;A. Wood;M. Hobbins;T. Kirkham;Laura Briefer;J. Niermeyer;S. Burian
摘要评估气候变化对市政供水的风险通常是通过针对当地流域和基础设施的水文建模来进行的，以确保产出与现有的规划框架和程序相兼容。这项研究利用美国国家气象局河流预报中心的模拟能力，探索未来气候驱动的水文变化对盐湖城公用事业部门(SLC)规划的重要因素的潜在影响。研究区域的水文模拟结果与以前的研究结果一致，表明温度变化本身就会导致径流提前和径流量减少。不同流域的年平均流量对温度的敏感度差异很大，平均为−3.8%°F−1，每华氏度增温流量减少1.8%至−6.5%。最大的流量减少发生在5-9月用水需求旺盛的月份。降水驱动了更多的水文响应。
AbstractAssessing climate change risk to municipal water supplies is often conducted by hydrologic modeling specific to local watersheds and infrastructure to ensure that outputs are compatible with existing planning frameworks and processes. This study leverages the modeling capacity of an operational National Weather Service River Forecast Center to explore the potential impacts of future climate-driven hydrologic changes on factors important to planning at the Salt Lake City Department of Public Utilities (SLC). Hydrologic modeling results for the study area align with prior research in showing that temperature changes alone will lead to earlier runoff and reduced runoff volume. The sensitivity of average annual flow to temperature varies significantly between watersheds, averaging −3.8% °F−1 and ranging from −1.8% to −6.5% flow reduction per degree Fahrenheit of warming. The largest flow reductions occur during the high water demand months of May–September. Precipitation drives hydrologic response mor...