Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems
Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems
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DOI：
10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0
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发表时间：
2020-02-17
期刊：
影响因子：
56.7
通讯作者：
Hong, Tianzhen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Perera, A. T. D.;Nik, Vahid M.;Hong, Tianzhen
气候变化不仅会导致平均气温的变化，而且会导致极端天气事件的频率更高，其影响难以量化。Perera等人量化了气候引起的极端和常规天气变化对能源系统的影响，确定了系统可靠性的要求。气候引起的极端天气事件和天气变化将影响能源需求和能源供应系统的弹性。由于未来天气事件的不可预测性，很难量化极端事件对能源系统的具体潜在影响。在这里，我们开发了一个随机鲁棒优化方法，同时考虑低影响的变化和极端事件。该方法在瑞典30个城市的应用，通过考虑13种气候变化情景，揭示了可再生能源潜力和需求的不确定性可能导致未来气候变化带来的显着性能差距（高达34%的电网整合）和极端天气事件导致的供电可靠性下降（高达16%）。适当量化气候变化影响将确保能源系统的稳健运行，并使大多数城市的可再生能源渗透率超过30%。
Climate change will induce not just a change in average temperature but higher frequency of extreme weather events, whose impacts are hard to quantify. Perera et al. quantify the impacts of climate induced extreme and regular weather variations on energy systems determining requirements for system reliability.Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. Here we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.