A New Perspective for Future Precipitation Change from Intense Extratropical Cyclones
A New Perspective for Future Precipitation Change from Intense Extratropical Cyclones
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl084001
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发表时间：
2019-11-13
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Satoh, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kodama, C.;Stevens, B.;Satoh, M.
温带气旋是中纬度地区降水的主要来源，包括中尺度锋和小尺度对流风暴。强烈的海洋气旋会造成自然灾害，对它们的变化进行可靠的预测，使人们对全球变暖产生极大的兴趣。在这里，我们分析了有史以来第一次全球气候模拟解决这样的中尺度动力学的热带气旋。目前的结构，频率和降水的海洋热带气旋比较好的再分析和新的卫星数据集，解决多尺度云降水系统。模拟强海洋气旋的降水量以7%/K-1的速率增加，遵循Clausius-Clapeyron，变暖。同样的比例也明显存在于大脑半球间的对比度中，这表明后者可以作为前者的预测因子。因此，随着变暖，强烈海洋气旋造成的降水预计变化可以使用当今可靠的全球降水观测网络来测试。
Extratropical cyclones, major contributors to precipitation in the midlatitudes, comprise mesoscale fronts and fine-scale convective storms. Intense oceanic cyclones pose natural hazards, making reliable projections of their changes with global warming of great interest. Here, we analyze the first ever global climate simulations to resolve such mesoscale dynamics of extratropical cyclones. The present-day structure, frequency, and precipitation of the oceanic extratropical cyclones compare well with reanalyses and new satellite datasets that resolve the multiscale cloud-precipitation system. Simulated precipitation from intense oceanic cyclones increases at a rate of 7%/K-1, following Clausius-Clapeyron, with warming. The same scaling is apparent also in the interhemispheric contrast, suggesting that the latter could serve as a predictor of the former. Projected changes in precipitation from intense oceanic cyclones with warming may thus be testable using a reliable global observation network of precipitation in the present day.