Increasing homeowners’ insulation activity in Germany: An empirically grounded agent-based model analysis
Increasing homeowners’ insulation activity in Germany: An empirically grounded agent-based model analysis
复制标题
德国房主的隔热活动增加：基于经验的基于代理的模型分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.enbuild.2016.07.042
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
J. Friege
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Friege
在德国，为了实现政府的目标，即到2050年将住房部门的能源需求减少80%，将目前约1%的隔热率提高一倍是一个重要因素。为了更好地了解他们的保温活动，对275名私人房主进行了一项调查。结果被纳入一个基于主体的模型，用于评估新的政策选择。调查结果表明，政策应侧重于房主的墙壁保温活动。房主关于隔热的决策过程在很大程度上不受其财务资源的影响，这就提出了财政激励是否有用的问题。相比之下，非经济因素被发现具有统计上显著的影响：在房屋所有权变更后的一年中，进行了相对大量的保温工程。通过了解房主的年龄、对保温的态度和墙体的结构状况，可以预测隔热墙的概率。模拟表明，信息设备导致墙壁保温率的相对较小的增加，而要求新房主在搬进来后的第一年内对墙壁进行保温有可能使总保温率提高高达40%。
In Germany, doubling today’s insulation rate of about 1% is an important element for reaching the government’s target of reducing the demand for energy in the housing sector by 80% by 2050. A survey among 275 private homeowners was conducted to better understand their insulation activity. The results were incorporated into an agent-based model, which was applied to evaluate new policy options. The results of the survey show that policies should focus on homeowners’ wall insulation activity. Homeowners’ decision-making processes regarding insulation are largely unaffected by their financial resources, which raises the question of the usefulness of financial incentives. In contrast, non-economic factors were found to have a statistically significant influence: in the year following a house ownership change, a comparatively large number of insulation projects are carried out. The probability of insulating walls can be predicted from knowing the homeowner’s age, attitude towards insulation, and the structural condition of the walls. The simulations indicate that information instruments lead to a comparatively small increase in the wall insulation rate, while obligating new homeowners to insulate the walls within the first year after moving in has the potential to increase the total insulation rate by up to 40%.