LUNG CANCER AND OTHER CAUSES OF DEATH IN RELATION TO SMOKING - A 2ND REPORT ON THE MORTALITY OF BRITISH DOCTORS
LUNG CANCER AND OTHER CAUSES OF DEATH IN RELATION TO SMOKING - A 2ND REPORT ON THE MORTALITY OF BRITISH DOCTORS
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.2.5001.1071
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发表时间：
1956-01-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
HILL, AB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
DOLL, R;HILL, AB
1951年10月31日，我们向英国所有医学界人士发出了一份简单的调查问卷。除了提供他们的姓名、地址和年龄外，他们还被要求将自己分为三组，即：（a）当时是否吸烟;（B）是否吸烟但已经戒烟;或（c）他们是否从未经常吸烟（我们将其定义为一年内从未每天吸一支烟或相当于烟斗烟草或雪茄的烟）。所有吸烟者和戒烟者都被问到了其他问题。吸烟者在回答问题时被问到他们开始吸烟的年龄、吸烟的数量和吸烟的方法。曾吸烟者亦被问及类似的问题，但有关他们最后一次戒烟的时间，我们根据他们对问卷的答复，按他们的性别、年龄、吸烟量、吸烟方法，以及是否继续吸烟或戒烟，将他们分为几大组别。随后，我们记录了每个组中发生的死亡情况。为了确保高比例的答复，我们故意使问题非常简短。特别是，我们没有询问吸烟习惯的生活史，尽管在研究肺癌的发病率时，由于诱导期很长，我们意识到早期成年生活的习惯可能比最近的习惯更相关。此外，我们没有进一步调查自1951年10月以来可能发生的习惯变化。简而言之，我们将1951年10月以来发生的医生死亡与当时构成的不吸烟、现在吸烟和戒烟人群联系起来。由此可见，虽然我们可以在终生不吸烟者和所有过去或现在的吸烟者之间进行准确的比较，但我们所观察到的与吸烟量有关的死亡率梯度都是对真实关系的低估。例如，我们将把那些以前吸过”大量“烟，但在1951年11月1日时已减少了吸烟量的人列入”轻度”吸烟者的群体。同样，一个1951年11月1日的”重度”吸烟者，
On October 31, 1951, we sent a simple questionary to all members of the medical profession in the United Kingdom. In addition to giving their name, address, and age, they were asked to classify themselves into one of three groups-namely,(a) whether they were, at that time, smokers of tobacco;(b) whether they had smoked but had given up; or (c) whether they had never smoked regularly (which we defined as having never smoked as much as one cigarette a day, or its equivalent in pipe tobacco or cigars, for as long as one year). All smokers and ex-smokers were asked additional questions. The smokers were asked the ages at which they had started smoking and the amount of tobacco that they were smoking, and the method of smoking it, at the time of replying to the questionary. The ex-smokers were asked similar questions but relating to the time at which they had last given up smoking.On the basis of their replies to the questionary, we classified the doctors ina few broad groups according to their sex and age, the amount of tobacco they smoked, their method of smoking, and whether smoking had been continued or abandoned. Subsequently we have recorded the deaths occurring in each of these groups. To ensure a high proportion of replies we intentionally made the questionary extremely short and simple. In particular, we did not ask for a life-history of smoking habits, though in studying the incidence of lung cancer, with a long induction period, we realized that the habits of early adult life might be more relevant than the most recent habits. In addition, we have made no further inquiry into any change of habits that may have taken place since October, 1951. In short, we have related the deaths of doctors that have occurred since October, 1951, to the non-smoking, present smoking, and ex-smoking groups as constituted at that date. It follows that, whilewe can make an accurate com-parison between life-long non-smokers and all smokers past or present, any gradient of mortality that we may observe in relation to the amount of smoking will be an understatement of the true relationship. We shall, for instance, have included in the group of" light" smokers persons who had previously smoked" heavily" but at November 1, 1951, had reduced their consumption. Similarly, a" heavy" smoker at November 1, 1951, may