Trade Preferential Agreements in Latin America: An Ex-Ante Assessment

Trade Preferential Agreements in Latin America: An Ex-Ante Assessment
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拉丁美洲的贸易优惠协定：事前评估

DOI：
10.1596/1813-9450-1583
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Michaely
M. Michaely
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Michaely

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在过去十年中，拉丁美洲的贸易政策发生了巨大变化：在几年内，该区域大多数经济体从限制性政策转变为开放政策。但与欧洲的贸易自由化不同，拉丁美洲的大多数贸易壁垒都是单方面减少的。最近考虑了双边或多边协定，特别是区域内的优惠贸易协定。作者评估了多边自由贸易协定（如北美自由贸易协定）对拉丁美洲大陆和加勒比地区的相关性和可取性，重点是它们如何影响贸易流量。一些拉丁美洲国家之间的优惠贸易协定是否可能比其他国家更有意义-在影响强度方面重要，或有益，或两者兼而有之？证据有力地表明，这些协议在拉丁美洲成功的可能性很小。奇怪的是，近年来的激烈自由化使得这类协定不太可能是有益的-可能有些国家与巴西、墨西哥或（在较小程度上）阿根廷之间的协定除外。当关税和非关税壁垒水平已经很低时，优惠协定产生不利影响的可能性大于产生有利影响的可能性（尽管在任何情况下影响都很小）。各国之间的进出口模式相似，表明存在贸易转移的可能性。然而，大多数国家将从与美国的优惠协定中受益。美国与拉美国家集团的协议对这些国家的好处并不比美国与个别国家的协议更多。
In the past decade a sea change has taken place in trade policies in Latin America: within a few years, most of the region's economies have changed from restrictive to open policies. But unlike trade liberalization in Europe, most trade barriers in Latin America have been reduced unilaterally. Recently bilateral or multilateral agreements have been considered, especially preferential trade agreements within the region. The author evaluates the relevance and desirability of multilateral free trade agreements (such as NAFTA) for the Latin American continent and the Caribbean, with an emphasis on how they affect trade flows. Is a preferential trade agreement among some Latin American countries more or less likely to be meaningful than others - important in intensity of impact, or beneficial, or both? The evidence strongly suggests little likelihood that these agreements will succeed in Latin America. Paradoxically, the intense liberalization in recent years has made it less likely that such agreements would be beneficial - except possibly for agreements between some countries and Brazil, Mexico, or (to a lesser extent) Argentina. When the level of tariffs and nontariff barriers is already low, a preferential agreement is more likely to have an adverse impact than a beneficial one (although in any case only a slight impact). Between countries, the patterns of exports and imports are similar, suggesting a potential for trade diversion. Most countries would benefit from a preferential agreement with the United States, however. And U.S. agreements with blocks of Latin American countries are no more beneficial to those countries than are U.S. agreements with individual countries.