Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming?
Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming?
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DOI：
10.1002/2016jd026125
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发表时间：
2017-02-27
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Seneviratne, S. I.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hirsch, A. L.;Wilhelm, M.;Seneviratne, S. I.
将全球变暖限制在2摄氏度以下是人类面临的迫在眉睫的挑战。然而，即使这一全球目标能够实现，一些地区仍可能经历相对于其他地区的大幅变暖。使用理想化的全球气候模拟，我们研究了土地管理方案在影响区域气候方面的潜力，重点是提高作物产量和灌溉（气候有效的土地管理）。在全局上对所有作物区域执行该实现以提供上限。我们发现，在21世纪的北美，欧亚大陆和印度，相对于没有管理应用程序的情况，作物抗旱和灌溉的实施可以减少2摄氏度以上的极端高温。作物抗旱增强的功效与幅度成比例，其中对于热温度极端超过0.5摄氏度的冷却响应是用大的（即，>= 0.08）作物产量的变化。区域差异主要归因于地表能量平衡响应，温度变化主要由灌溉潜热通量变化和作物蒸腾增强的短波净辐射变化来解释。然而，局限性确实存在，当气候有效的土地管理暂时停止时，我们发现冬季会变暖。这与持续的云层覆盖有关，增强了长波变暖。目前还无法确认这种反馈的幅度是否在其他气候模型中可以重现。我们的研究结果总体上表明，在我们的气候模型中，区域极端炎热的变暖可以部分缓解时，使用理想化的处理气候有效的土地管理。
Limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However, even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial warming relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations, we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (climate-effective land management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature extremes by more than 2 degrees C in North America, Eurasia, and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5 degrees C for hot temperature extremes was achieved with a large (i.e., >= 0.08) change in crop albedo. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. However, limitations do exist, where we identify warming over the winter months when climate-effective land management is temporarily suspended. This was associated with persistent cloud cover that enhances longwave warming. It cannot be confirmed if the magnitude of this feedback is reproducible in other climate models. Our results overall demonstrate that regional warming of hot extremes in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of climate-effective land management.