Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties
Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties
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DOI：
10.1002/2014wr015558
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发表时间：
2014-08-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Lambert, Chris
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Borgomeo, Edoardo;Hall, Jim W.;Lambert, Chris
我们提出了一种基于风险的方法，将非平稳概率气候预测纳入长期水资源规划。所提出的方法使用非平稳的合成时间序列的未来气候通过随机天气生成器的基础上，英国气候预测（UKCP09）构建一个概率分布的频率在未来的水资源短缺。UKCP09预测远远超出了当前水文变化的范围，为测试水资源管理计划对未来气候相关不确定性的稳健性提供了基础。预测的非平稳性质与随机模拟方法相结合，允许对气候模式输出条件下的气候变率进行广泛的采样。超过不同严重程度（定义为供水公用事业公司的服务水平）的水资源短缺的计划频率的概率被用作水资源规划的风险度量。不同来源的不确定性，包括需求方的不确定性，同时考虑和评估其对风险度量的影响。供应方和需求方管理战略可以根据它们在将风险降低到可接受水平方面的成本效益进行比较。基于伦敦（英国）供水系统的案例研究来说明的方法。结果表明，在整个规划期内，超过计划服务水平的概率有所增加。在每年1%的人口增长情景下，到2040年超过计划服务水平的概率高达0.5。该案例研究还说明了如何需要将供需管理办法结合起来，以减少缺水风险。
We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.