Sensitivity of Attribution of Anthropogenic Near-Surface Warming to Observational Uncertainty
Sensitivity of Attribution of Anthropogenic Near-Surface Warming to Observational Uncertainty
复制标题
人为近地表变暖对观测不确定性的敏感性
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-16-0628.1
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
J. Kennedy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Jones;J. Kennedy
摘要研究了包括观测不确定性的综合估计对二十世纪近地表温度变化的探测和归因分析的影响。HadCRUT4是一个陆地近地表气温和海面温度数据集，其误差模型提供了测量、采样和偏差调整不确定性的估计。这些不确定性被纳入一个最佳的检测分析，回归模拟大规模的时间和空间变化的近地表温度，驱动混合温室气体的变化和其他人为和自然因素，对观测到的变化。包括偏差调整的不确定性增加的回归比例因子的方差和归因于变暖的范围从混合良好的温室气体不到20%。包括测量和抽样误差的估计对结果的影响要小得多。可归因温室气体变暖的范围最大。
AbstractThe impact of including comprehensive estimates of observational uncertainties on a detection and attribution analysis of twentieth-century near-surface temperature variations is investigated. The error model of HadCRUT4, a dataset of land near-surface air temperatures and sea surface temperatures, provides estimates of measurement, sampling, and bias adjustment uncertainties. These uncertainties are incorporated into an optimal detection analysis that regresses simulated large-scale temporal and spatial variations in near-surface temperatures, driven by well-mixed greenhouse gas variations and other anthropogenic and natural factors, against observed changes. The inclusion of bias adjustment uncertainties increases the variance of the regression scaling factors and the range of attributed warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases by less than 20%. Including estimates of measurement and sampling errors has a much smaller impact on the results. The range of attributable greenhouse gas warming is lar...
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Cowtan, Kevin;Way, Robert G.
通讯作者：
Way, Robert G.
影响因子：
8
作者：
Kent, Elizabeth C.;Kennedy, John J.;Zhang, Huai-Min
通讯作者：
Zhang, Huai-Min