Aggregate earnings informativeness and economic shocks: international evidence
Aggregate earnings informativeness and economic shocks: international evidence
复制标题
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3461082
复制
发表时间：
2019-11
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Yuto Yoshinaga;M. Nakano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yuto Yoshinaga;M. Nakano
摘要本研究提出以总盈余预测未来GDP成长。通过对全球季度数据的实证分析，我们研究了作为总收益组成部分的总盈利能力驱动因素是否与GDP增长预测相关。在确认总体水平的盈利能力驱动因素对于预测全球未来GDP增长是有用的之后，我们表明，考虑危机的影响可以改善GDP增长的预测模型。此外，我们认为，预测GDP增长使用总水平的盈利能力驱动因素是相关的股票估值在发达国家，但不是在新兴国家。
ABSTRACT Our study proposes the usage of aggregate earnings to forecast future GDP growth. Using empirical analyses with global quarterly data, we investigate whether aggregate-level profitability drivers, which are components of aggregate earnings, are relevant for forecasting GDP growth. After confirming that aggregate-level profitability drivers are useful for forecasting future GDP growth worldwide, we show that considering the effects of crises improves the forecast model of GDP growth. In addition, we suggest that predicting GDP growth using aggregate-level profitability drivers is relevant for stock valuation in developed countries, but not in emerging countries.