Snow and glacier melt runoff simulation under variable altitudes and climate scenarios in Gilgit River Basin, Karakoram region
Snow and glacier melt runoff simulation under variable altitudes and climate scenarios in Gilgit River Basin, Karakoram region
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DOI：
10.1007/s40808-020-00777-y
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发表时间：
2020-04-21
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Iqbal, Mehwish
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ayub, Sobia;Akhter, Gulraiz;Iqbal, Mehwish
喜马拉雅地区的雪和冰川资源是印度河流域灌溉系统的主要淡水来源，数百万人的生计依赖于此。在最近全球变暖的背景下，估计雪和冰川融化以管理该地区未来的水资源已成为不可避免的。在本研究中，雪和冰川融水径流估计从不同的海拔范围内，在巴基斯坦的吉尔吉特河流域的气候变化的情况下，使用综合建模方法。研究结果表明，在<$it盆地，海拔4000至5000米的范围内，径流贡献> 80%。温度升高1 ℃的情景表明，在年度和夏季流量增加9%和13%，而3 ℃的温度升高表现出的75%和95%，在年度和夏季流量的吉尔吉特河增加。由于降水量增加了10%，吉尔吉特河的年流量增加了48%，夏季流量增加了57%。由于气温上升，预计融雪期将从4月转移到3月。径流的主要贡献估计来自融雪，其次是冰川融化和降雨。流域内积雪面积总体呈上升趋势，支持了喀喇昆仑冰川质量增长的事实。在未来的气候变化下，该流域预计夏季流量将增加，应加以管理，以满足未来生活在下游的众多社区日益增长的用水需求。
The snow and glacial resource of the Himalayan region are a major source of fresh water for Indus basin irrigation system on which sustenance of millions of people depends. In the context of recent growth in global warming, it has become inevitable to estimate snow and glacier melt to manage future water resource in this region. In the present study, snow and glacier melt runoff was estimated from various altitudinal ranges and under variable climate scenarios in Gilgit River Basin of Pakistan using an integrated modeling approach. The findings of the study revealed > 80% runoff contribution from 4000 to 5000 m elevation range in the Gilgit Basin. The scenario of temperature increase by 1 degrees C indicated 9% and 13% rise in annual and summer flows, while 3 degrees C rise in temperature exhibited an increase of 75% and 95% in annual and summer flows of the Gilgit River. As a result of 10% rise in precipitation, the Gilgit River indicated an increase of 48% in annual and 57% in summer flows. A shift in snow melting period was predicted from April to March due to rising warm temperature. Major contribution in the runoff was estimated from snowmelt followed by glacier melt and rainfall. Overall rising trend in snow cover area was observed in the basin, which support the fact of mass gaining behavior of the Karakoram glaciers. The increased summer flows expected under future climate change in this basin should be managed to fulfill the growing water demands of numerous communities living in the downstream in the future.