Multi-centennial tree-ring record of ENSO-related activity in New Zealand
Multi-centennial tree-ring record of ENSO-related activity in New Zealand
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1374
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发表时间：
2012-03
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
A. Fowler;G. Boswijk;A. Lorrey;J. Gergis;M. Pirie;Shane P. J. McCloskey;J. Palmer;J. Wunder
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Fowler;G. Boswijk;A. Lorrey;J. Gergis;M. Pirie;Shane P. J. McCloskey;J. Palmer;J. Wunder
目前尚不清楚全球变暖将如何影响厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）。仪器记录太短，无法辨别百年尺度的趋势，建模结果也不确定。代用重建表明，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动活动在世纪后期相对较高，但这是否是不寻常的千年背景下仍然不确定。在这里，我们提出的见解，这些问题来自贝壳杉（Agathis australis），一种罕见的长寿针叶树特有的森林北方新西兰的戒指。我们的研究结果表明，20世纪是过去500年中ENSO最活跃的世纪，但在过去700年的背景下可能不是唯一的，并且在比现在更温暖的条件下，ENSO活动与20世纪后期经历的活动相当或高于20世纪后期经历的活动是合理的。我们还发现证据表明，在14和15世纪期间，ENSO遥相关到新西兰地区可能发生了重大变化，并且ENSO相关活动的数十年波动一直持续到今天。虽然这两个功能可能会延迟表达的ENSO活动增加在新西兰地区，我们的研究结果表明，新西兰的气候很可能是更多的主导ENSO相关的年际变化，因为世界继续变暖。
It is not known how global warming will affect the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The instrumental record is too short to discern centennial-scale trends and modelling results are inconclusive,,,,. Proxy reconstructions indicate that ENSO activity was relatively high during the late twentieth century,,,,, but whether this was unusual in the millennial context remains uncertain. Here we present insights into these issues derived from rings of the kauri tree (Agathis australis), a rare long-lived conifer endemic to the forests of northern New Zealand. Our results indicate that the twentieth century was the most ‘ENSO-active’ century of the past 500 years, but may not be unique in the context of the past 700 years, and that ENSO activity comparable to or elevated above that experienced during the late twentieth century is plausible under warmer-than-present conditions. We also find evidence that there may have been significant changes in the ENSO teleconnection to the New Zealand region during the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries, and of multi-decadal fluctuations in ENSO-related activity building up to the present day. Although these two features may delay the expression of increased ENSO activity in the New Zealand region, our results indicate that New Zealand climate is likely to be more dominated by ENSO-related inter-annual variability as the world continues to warm.