Scientific lessons from the first influenza pandemic of the 20th century
Scientific lessons from the first influenza pandemic of the 20th century
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DOI：
10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.101
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发表时间：
2006-11-10
期刊：
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Gill, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Oxford, J. S.;Lambkin, R.;Gill, D.
对 1918 年流感大流行的重新分析使人们确信，传染数 (R-o) 相当低，病毒传播波持续时间较长，死亡率偏向年轻人，这可能是一个独特的事件，取决于之前的感染史，也许不会在未来的大流行中重复。尽管没有针对继发性细菌感染的抗病毒药物、疫苗和抗生素，但超过 99% 的感染者幸存下来，继发性细菌感染可能占 5000 万人死亡的三分之一。因此，尽管自 1918 年以来人口增长了三倍，每天有 10 万次飞机旅行，但明智和仔细的规划，加上抗病毒药物、奥司他韦、扎那米韦和 M2 阻滞剂以及通用 H5N1 疫苗的储备，以及卫生习惯的应用，预计将在新的大流行中将死亡率降低到远低于 1918 年的数字。(c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
Re-analysis of the influenza pandemic of 1918 has given reassurance about a rather low reproductive number (R-o), a prolonged herald wave of virus and that the skewed mortality towards the young adult could be a singularly unique event dependent upon previous infection history, perhaps not to be repeated in a future pandemic. Over 99% of those who contracted the virus survived, in spite of the absence of antivirals, vaccine and antibiotics for the secondary bacteria infections which probably accounted for one-third of the 50 million deaths. Therefore, in spite of a three-fold population increase since 1918 and 100 thousand plane journeys daily, judicious and careful planning together with a stockpile of antiviral drugs, oseltamivir, zanamivir and M2 blockers and a generic H5N1 vaccine, and application of hygiene would be expected to reduce mortality in a new pandemic, to figures significantly less than 1918. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.