A model to estimate the probability of hepatitis B- and Haemophilus influenzae type b-vaccine uptake into national vaccination programs
A model to estimate the probability of hepatitis B- and Haemophilus influenzae type b-vaccine uptake into national vaccination programs
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DOI：
10.1016/s0264-410x(99)00563-0
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发表时间：
2000-04-28
期刊：
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Flanders, WD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Miller, MA;Flanders, WD
尽管全球多边机构提出了建议，但大多数国家在将新疫苗纳入国家疫苗接种计划方面进展缓慢。分析了采用B型肝炎（HB）疫苗的国家的特点，并用于制定逻辑回归模型。将该模型应用于国家特定数据，以预测HB和B型流感嗜血杆菌（HiB）疫苗接种。HB摄取的最大预测因素是其他疫苗的覆盖率，疫苗成本相对于经济和感知疾病负担。逻辑回归模型的疫苗摄取概率估计值与HB和Hib的观察数据一致（c-统计量分别为85和82%）。将该模型应用于其他抗原可能有助于预测潜在的国家市场，以更好地规划新疫苗的供应和需求。(C)2000由爱思唯尔科学有限公司出版。版权所有。
Most countries have been slow to adopt new vaccines into national vaccination schedules, despite recommendations from global multi-lateral agencies. Characteristics of countries that have adopted hepatitis B (HB) vaccine were analysed and used to formulate a logistic regression model. The model was applied to country-specific data to predict HB and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine uptake. The greatest predictors of HB uptake were coverage rates of other vaccines, vaccine cost relative to the economy, and perceived disease burden. The logistic regression model's probability estimate of vaccine uptake agreed well with observed data for HB and Hib, (c-statistic 85 and 82%, respectively). Application of this model to other antigens may aid in predicting potential national markets to better plan new vaccine supply and demand. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.