Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies
Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies
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气候变化对黄河流域水资源的影响及全球适应策略识别
DOI：
10.1007/s11027-015-9664-x
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Zhai Ran
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Guoqing;Zhang Jianyun;Jin Junliang;Weinberg Josh;Bao Zhenxin;Liu Cuishan;Liu Yanli;Yan Xiaolin;Song Xiaomeng;Zhai Ran
气候变化是一个全球性的环境问题，对水资源管理和实践提出了挑战。本研究调查了气候变化对中国粮食主产区黄河流域水资源的影响，并提出了提高流域地区适应能力和韧性的战略建议。结果表明，从1951年到2010年，黄河有记录的水系流量呈下降趋势，中下游地区下降幅度较大。可变入渗能力(VIC)模型可以很好地模拟黄河支流流域和整个流域的月径流量。预计2021年至2050年黄河流域气温将继续上升，平均速度约为0.039-0.056摄氏度/年。与1991-2010年基线相比，流域年平均降水量预计增加1.28-3.29%。与1991-2010年相比，2021-2050年期间的径流量预计将减少0.53-9.67%，具有高度的年代际和空间变异性。这很可能是因为模型预测气温将显著上升，降水模式也会发生变化。气候变化可能会加剧流域地区水资源短缺和洪灾的严重程度和频率。因此，必须对黄河流域应对气候变化的结构性和非结构性措施给予足够的重视。在全球一级，提高适应能力和建设应对气候变化能力的战略侧重于公共教育，以提高对气候风险的认识，在影响评估的基础上实施水资源综合管理和规划。
Climate change is a global environmental issue, which is challenging water resources management and practices. This study investigates the impact of climate change on water resources of the Yellow River basin, a major grain-producing area in China, and provides recommendations on strategies to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in the basin region. Results show that the recorded stream flows of the Yellow River declined from 1951 to 2010 and have decreased significantly in the middle and lower reaches. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model performs well as a tool to simulate monthly discharge of both the tributary catchments and the whole Yellow River basin. Temperature across the Yellow River basin over 2021–2050 is expected to continue to rise with an average rates of approximately 0.039–0.056 °C/annum. The average annual precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 1.28–3.29 % compared with the 1991–2010 baseline. Runoff during 2021–2050 is projected to decrease by 0.53–9.67 % relative to 1991–2010 with high decadal and spatial variability. This is likely due to the model’s projections of a significant rise in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. Climate change will likely aggravate the severity and frequency of both water shortages and flooding in the basin region. It is therefore essential to devote sufficient attention on structural and non-structural measures for the Yellow River basin to cope with climate change. At the global level, strategies to increase adaptive capacity and build resilience to climate change focus on public education to improve awareness of climate risks, implementing the integrated water resources management and planning based on impact assessments.