Loss of life expectancy from air pollution compared to other risk factors: a worldwide perspective
Loss of life expectancy from air pollution compared to other risk factors: a worldwide perspective
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DOI：
10.1093/cvr/cvaa025
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发表时间：
2020-09-01
影响因子：
10.8
通讯作者：
Muenzel, Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lelieveld, Jos;Pozzer, Andrea;Muenzel, Thomas
人类长期暴露在空气污染中会增加患心血管和呼吸系统疾病的风险。一个新的全球暴露死亡率模型（GEMM）已经从许多队列研究中衍生出来，提供了更好的覆盖面的细颗粒物（PM2.5）的暴露。我们应用GEMM来评估全球范围内环境空气污染导致的超额死亡率，并与其他风险因素进行比较。方法和结果我们使用数据信息大气模型来计算全球范围内PM2. 5和臭氧污染的暴露量，并将其与GEMM相结合来估计2015年特定疾病的超额死亡率和预期寿命损失（LLE）。使用这个模型，我们调查了不同污染源的影响，区分了自然（野火，风尘）和人为排放，包括化石燃料的使用。所有环境空气污染造成的全球超额死亡率估计为880万（711 - 1041）人/年，LLE为2.9（2.3 - 3.5）年，比以前的估计高出两倍，超过了吸烟。全球平均死亡率约为每10万人/年120人，远高于东亚（每10万人/年196人）和欧洲（每10万人/年133人）。如果没有化石燃料排放，全球平均预期寿命将增加1.1（0.9 - 1.2）年，如果消除所有潜在的可控人为排放，则将增加1.7（1.4 - 2.0）年。由于风沙和野火排放控制是不切实际的，显着的LLE是不可避免的。结论环境空气污染是全球主要的健康风险之一，造成显着的超额死亡率和LLE，特别是通过心血管疾病。它引起的LLE与吸烟相当。空气污染的全球平均LLE大大超过暴力（所有形式），即一个数量级（LLE分别为2.9和0.3年）。
Aims Long-term exposure of humans to air pollution enhances the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. A novel Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) has been derived from many cohort studies, providing much-improved coverage of the exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We applied the GEMM to assess excess mortality attributable to ambient air pollution on a global scale and compare to other risk factors.Methods and results We used a data-informed atmospheric model to calculate worldwide exposure to PM2.5 and ozone pollution, which was combined with the GEMM to estimate disease-specific excess mortality and loss of life expectancy (LLE) in 2015. Using this model, we investigated the effects of different pollution sources, distinguishing between natural (wildfires, aeolian dust) and anthropogenic emissions, including fossil fuel use. Global excess mortality from all ambient air pollution is estimated at 8.8 (7.11-10.41) million/year, with an LLE of 2.9 (2.3-3.5) years, being a factor of two higher than earlier estimates, and exceeding that of tobacco smoking. The global mean mortality rate of about 120 per 100 000 people/year is much exceeded in East Asia (196 per 100 000/year) and Europe (133 per 100 000/year). Without fossil fuel emissions, the global mean life expectancy would increase by 1.1 (0.9-1.2) years and 1.7 (1.4-2.0) years by removing all potentially controllable anthropogenic emissions. Because aeolian dust and wildfire emission control is impracticable, significant LLE is unavoidable.Conclusion Ambient air pollution is one of the main global health risks, causing significant excess mortality and LLE, especially through cardiovascular diseases. It causes an LLE that rivals that of tobacco smoking. The global mean LLE from air pollution strongly exceeds that by violence (all forms together), i.e. by an order of magnitude (LLE being 2.9 and 0.3 years, respectively).