Examining the impact of emissions scenario on lower Mississippi River flood hazard projections
Examining the impact of emissions scenario on lower Mississippi River flood hazard projections
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DOI：
10.1088/2515-7620/ac8d53
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发表时间：
2022-08
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
K. Dunne;Sylvia Dee;J. Reinders;Samuel Munoz;Jeffrey Nittrouer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Dunne;Sylvia Dee;J. Reinders;Samuel Munoz;Jeffrey Nittrouer
密西西比河是北美最大的商业水道，也是世界上工程量最大的河流之一。未来气候变化对河流水文的改变可能会增加洪水缓解和航运基础设施的脆弱性，这些基础设施是为限制20世纪的泄洪条件而实施的。在这里，我们评估了1920-2100年密西西比河下游流域水文气候和流量的变化，方法是在多种温室气体排放情景下，结合CESM1.2的河流流量计观测和气候模式集合模拟。我们表明，密西西比河下游的洪水状况对排放情景高度敏感；具体地说，在RCP8.5强制下，超过现有洪水缓解基础设施的洪水流量的重现期从大约1000年减少到2100年，主要是由于流域内降水和径流的增加。如果不积极减少温室气体排放，缓解洪水的基础设施可能需要大量翻新，以避免对密西西比河下游的工业和社区造成破坏。
The Mississippi River is the largest commercial waterway in North America and one of the most heavily engineered rivers in the world. Future alteration of the river’s hydrology by climate change may increase the vulnerability of flood mitigation and navigation infrastructure implemented to constrain 20th century discharge conditions. Here, we evaluate changes in Lower Mississippi River basin hydroclimate and discharge from 1920–2100 C.E. by integrating river gauge observations and climate model ensemble simulations from CESM1.2 under multiple greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We show that the Lower Mississippi River’s flood regime is highly sensitive to emissions scenario; specifically, the return period of flood discharge exceeding existing flood mitigation infrastructure decreases from approximately 1000 years to 31 years by the year 2100 under RCP8.5 forcing, primarily driven by increasing precipitation and runoff within the basin. Without aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, flood mitigation infrastructure may require substantial retrofitting to avoid disruptions to industries and communities along the Lower Mississippi River.