Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea
Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.031
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发表时间：
2020-04-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Chowell, Gerardo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shim, Eunha;Tariq, Amna;Chowell, Gerardo
目的：自2020年1月20日在韩国发现首例2019年新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）以来，病例数迅速增加，截至2020年3月6日，已造成6284例病例，其中42例死亡。为了检验疫情的增长速度，我们首次报告了COVID-19在韩国的繁殖数量。方法：从公开资料中提取韩国每日新冠肺炎确诊病例。利用经验报告延迟分布，模拟广义增长模型，基于代间隔的离散概率分布估计有效再生产数。结果：我们确定了四个主要群集，并估计繁殖数为1.5 （95% CI: 1.4-1.6）。此外，内在增长率估计为0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7)，生长参数的标度估计为0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8)，表明COVID-19的亚指数增长动态。男性的粗病死率（1.1%）高于女性（0.4%），并且随着年龄的增长而增加。结论：我们的研究结果表明，COVID-19在韩国早期持续传播，并支持实施社会距离措施以迅速控制疫情。(C) 2020作者。由爱思唯尔有限公司代表国际传染病学会出版。
Objectives: Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) identified on Jan 20, 2020, in South Korea, the number of cases rapidly increased, resulting in 6284 cases including 42 deaths as of Mar 6, 2020. To examine the growth rate of the outbreak, we present the first study to report the reproduction number of COVID-19 in South Korea.Methods: The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea were extracted from publicly available sources. By using the empirical reporting delay distribution and simulating the generalized growth model, we estimated the effective reproduction number based on the discretized probability distribution of the generation interval.Results: We identified four major clusters and estimated the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6). In addition, the intrinsic growth rate was estimated at 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7), and the scaling of growth parameter was estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8), indicating sub-exponential growth dynamics of COVID-19. The crude case fatality rate is higher among males (1.1%) compared to females (0.4%) and increases with older age.Conclusions: Our results indicate an early sustained transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.