National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2016
National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2016
复制标题
DOI：
10.2146/ajhp160205
复制
发表时间：
2016-07-15
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Vermeulen, Lee C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schumock, Glen T.;Li, Edward C.;Vermeulen, Lee C.
目的。讨论了可能影响未来药品支出的历史趋势和因素，并对2016年非联邦医院、诊所和整体（所有部门）的药品支出进行了预测。从IMS Health National Sales Perspectives数据库获得2015日历年的药品支出数据并进行分析。2016年可能影响医院和诊所药品支出的其他因素，包括新药批准和专利到期，也进行了审查。2016年的支出预测是基于定量分析和专家意见的结合。2015日历年，美国处方药总销售额为4194亿美元，比2014年增长11.7%。2015年，诊所和非联邦医院的处方支出总额分别为567亿美元（增长15.9%）和336亿美元（增长10.7%）。在非联邦医院，支出的增长主要是由现有药品价格上涨推动的。丙型肝炎联合药物ledipasvir-sofosbuvir是2015年支出最多的药物（143亿美元）；在诊所和非联邦医院，英夫利昔单抗都是首选药物。2015年支出增幅最大的药品为专科药和老仿制药；这些代理商可能会继续影响2016年的总支出。我们预计2016年药品总支出将增长11-13%，其中诊所支出将增长15-17%，医院支出将增长10-12%。卫生系统药房负责人在预测2016年本组织的药品支出时，应仔细检查当地的药物使用模式。
Purpose. Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2016 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors).Methods. Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2015 were obtained from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. Other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2016, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2016 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and, expert opinion.Results. Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2015 calendar year were $419.4 billion, which was 11.7% higher than sales in 2014. Prescription expenditures in clinics and nonfederal hoSpitals totaled $56.7 billion (a 15.9% increase) and $33.6 billion (a 10.7% increase), respectively, in 2015. In nonfederal hospitals, growth in spending was driven primarily by increased prices for existing drugs. The hepatitis C combination drug ledipasvir-sofosbuvir was the top drug overall in terms of 2015 expenditures ($14.3 billion); in both clinics and nonfederal hospitals, infliximab was the top drug. Individual drugs with the greatest increases in expenditures in 2015 were specialty agents and older generics; these agents are likely to continue to influence total spending in 2016.Conclusion. We project an 11-13% increase in total drug expenditures overall in 2016, with a 15-17% increase in clinic spending and a 10-12% increase in hospital Spending. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug utilization patterns in projecting their own organization's drug spending in 2016.