Anomalous atmospheric events leading to Kyushu's flash floods, July 11-14, 2012
Anomalous atmospheric events leading to Kyushu's flash floods, July 11-14, 2012
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-014-1134-3
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发表时间：
2014-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Huang, Wenrui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Duan, Weili;He, Bin;Huang, Wenrui
2012年7月11日至14日，一系列前所未有的暴雨引发的致命洪水和山体滑坡袭击了日本九州，造成至少32人死亡，约40万人撤离。我们专注于天气异常后，检查降雨模式和记录与这一悲剧性事件的条件下使用的数据相结合的全球降雨图在近真实的时间数据，NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集，和全球预报系统。降雨图显示，这几天九州有许多暴雨，这场灾难与预报模式和标准化异常有关。在此期间出现了一个高度距平为正的天气槽，其中心移向日本北部，可能引起风的异常，大量的水汽以高达90 m s（-1）的速度输送到九州地区，和高值的可降水量形成了高达60毫米。这些结果表明，一个较大的-尺度模式有利于强降雨，异常将模式置于极端降雨事件的潜在背景中，这可以为预测极端事件或类似事件提供见解和方法。
During July 11-14, 2012, deadly floods and landslides triggered by a series of unprecedented heavy rains hit Kyushu, Japan, causing at least 32 deaths and around 400,000 evacuations. We focus on synoptic anomalies identified after inspecting rainfall patterns and documenting the conditions associated with this tragic event using data combined from the Global Rainfall Map in Near Real Time data, the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset, and the global forecast system. Rainfall maps indicated that there were many heavy rains in Kyushu in these days and this disaster was associated with the pattern of forecasts and standardized anomalies. A weather trough with positive height anomalies appeared, the center of which moved to the north of Japan over this period, which might cause wind anomalies and whereby lots of water vapor were transported to Kyushu area with up to 90 m s(-1), and high values of precipitable water formed with up to 60 mm. These results suggest that a larger-scale pattern is conducive for heavy rainfall and the anomalies put the pattern in context as to the potential for an extreme rainfall event, which can provide insights and methods for predicting extreme events' or something similar.