Brexit Trade Impacts: Alternative Scenarios
Brexit Trade Impacts: Alternative Scenarios
复制标题
英国脱欧贸易影响：替代方案
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jingliang Xiao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dan Ciuriak;A. Dadkhah;Jingliang Xiao
本说明对英国脱离欧盟的贸易相关影响提出了四种替代估计。我们将英国与欧盟其他国家的关系重新设定为世贸组织规则最惠国待遇的退出（“脱欧”）与通过谈判改变英国的地位进行对比，后者在很大程度上保持了英国与欧盟其他国家的一体化程度，类似于欧洲自由贸易联盟（“Brefta”）。虽然这两种情景对欧盟分为 16 个地区进行了建模，但第三种情景显示了在总体基础上对待欧盟其他国家 (EU27) 的脱欧情景建模结果的影响，其中我们引入了“单一市场”效应，反映了欧盟 27 国对欧盟 27 国产品的偏好。第四种情况是在TTIP无法推进的背景下与美国达成自由贸易协定，这反映了跨大西洋贸易关系的新兴政治经济。
This note develops four alternative estimates of the trade-related impacts of the United Kingdom seceding from the European Union. We contrast an exit that re-sets the UK’s relationship with the rest of the EU to a WTO-rules most favoured nation basis (“Brexit”) with a negotiated change in the UK’s status that largely preserves the UK’s integration with the rest of the EU at a level similar to that of the European Free Trade Association (“Brefta”). While these two scenarios model the EU disaggregated into sixteen regions, a third scenario shows the implications for outcomes of modelling the Brexit scenario treating the rest of the EU (EU27) on an aggregated basis, where we introduce a “single market” effect that reflects EU27 preference for EU27 products. A fourth scenario introduces a UK free trade agreement with the United States in the context of the TTIP not going ahead, which reflects the emerging political economy of trans-Atlantic trade relations.