Can adoption of rooftop solar panels trigger a utility death spiral? A tale of two U.S. cities
Can adoption of rooftop solar panels trigger a utility death spiral? A tale of two U.S. cities
复制标题
采用屋顶太阳能电池板会引发公用事业死亡螺旋吗？
DOI：
10.1016/j.erss.2017.06.041
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
F. Murphy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mohammed Muaafa;Iqbal Adjali;Patrick Bean;Rolando Fuentes;S. Kimbrough;F. Murphy
分布式能源发电（DEG）的日益普及正在引起电力市场的重大变化。一个关键的问题是，现有的关税激励家庭的“搭便车”行为，导致电价上涨和DEG采用的循环，从而侵蚀公用事业收入并开始死亡螺旋。我们开发了一个基于代理的模型，使用来自美国两个城市的数据来探索这个问题。我们的模型显示，在美国目前的政策和价格下，由于采用屋顶太阳能，都是毫无根据的我们发现，在许多情况下，虽然住宅部分受到的影响比非住宅部分更严重，但就整体需求减少和随后的电价上涨而言，光伏渗透的规模很小。此外，采用的速度可能是平稳的，而不是突然的，给物理电网，公用事业公司和政府政策足够的时间来适应。尽管我们的研究结果表明，对太阳能系统的公用事业死亡螺旋的担忧还为时过早，但监管机构仍应监测各种形式的DEG的收入损失和损失分布。这些担忧应导致人们更加关注关税创新。
The growing penetration of distributed energy generation (DEG) is causing major changes in the electricity market. One key concern is that existing tariffs incentivize ‘free riding’ behavior by households, leading to a cycle of rising electricity prices and DEG adoption, thereby eroding utility revenues and start a death spiral. We developed an agent based model using data from two cities in the U.S. to explore this issue. Our model shows worries about a utility ‘death spiral’ due to the adoption of rooftop solar, under current policies and prices in the U.S., are unfounded. We found, consistently for a number of scenarios, that, while the residential segment is impacted more heavily than the non-residential segment, the scale of PV penetration is minimal, in terms of overall demand reduction and subsequent tariff increases. Also, the rate of adoption would probably be smooth rather than sudden, giving the physical grid, the utility companies, and government policies enough time to adapt. Although our results suggest that fears of a utility death spiral from solar systems are premature, regulators should still monitor revenue losses and the distribution of losses from all forms of DEG. The concerns should lead to a more focus on tariff innovations.