Hot weather and residential hourly electricity demand in Italy
Hot weather and residential hourly electricity demand in Italy
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2019.04.051
复制
发表时间：
2019-06
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
A. Alberini;G. Prettico;Chang Shen;Jacopo Torriti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Alberini;G. Prettico;Chang Shen;Jacopo Torriti
对气候变化、污染和能源安全的担忧促使出台了旨在用电力（可能是由可再生能源产生的）取代化石燃料（用于供暖、制冷和运输）的政策。气候变化本身预计会增加建筑物的冷却需求，而这种需求通常通过电力空调来满足。我们使用意大利住宅样本全年的每小时电力需求来研究住宅需求对温度的敏感程度。我们的回归模型包括一组丰富的按时间划分的家庭固定效应，用于控制居住特征和设备、家庭构成、工作和商务日程、照明需求以及温度以外的季节性习惯。这些使我们能够将温度的影响与照明需求以及可能与温度相关但不是温度的其他季节性影响分开。我们发现，在温度达到 24.4°C 左右时，需求在相对较窄的范围内保持不变（因此相对平稳），此后随着温度的升高而急剧增加。我们发现温度在日常电力需求中只占很小的份额。只有在异常炎热的夏季，温度才能占每小时用电量的12%。
Concerns about climate change, pollution and energy security have prompted policies aiming at replacing fossil fuels (in heating and cooling, and transportation) with electricity, presumably generated from renewable sources. Climate change itself is expected to increase the demand for cooling in buildings, which is generally met with electricity-powered air conditioning. We use hourly electricity demand from a sample of Italian residences over a full year to examine how sensitive residential demand is to temperature. Our regression model includes a rich set of household-by-time fixed effects to control for dwelling characteristics and equipment, family composition, work and business schedules, demand for lighting, and seasonal habits other than temperature. These allows us to separate the effect of temperature from the demand for lighting and from other seasonal effects that may be correlated with temperature, but are not temperature. We find that demand stays unchanged within a relatively narrow range (and is thus relatively flat) up to temperatures of about 24.4 °C, and increases sharply with temperature thereafter. We find that temperature accounts for a very small share of daily electricity demand. Only on exceptionally hot summer days can temperature account for 12% of hourly electricity use.