Diagnostic accuracy of the palliative prognostic score in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer
Diagnostic accuracy of the palliative prognostic score in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer
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DOI：
10.1200/jco.2004.12.056
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发表时间：
2004-12-01
影响因子：
45.3
通讯作者：
McMahon, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Glare, PA;Eychmueller, S;McMahon, P
目的评估姑息性预后（PaP）评分的预测准确性在晚期癌症患者的护理下的肿瘤学家patients and Methods的PaP评分计算在100例连续的晚期癌症患者住院治疗的医疗或放射肿瘤学家在澳大利亚的一所大学教学医院。主治肿瘤学家预测生存期，以进行评分。评估PaP评分的阳性预测值。生存分析比较三组预后的生存率。结果98例患者可评估的生存数据。总体中位生存期为12周（四分位距，7 - 25周）。PaP评分将异质性患者样本分为3个与1个月生存机会相关的等预后组，A组64例（> 70%机会），B组32例（30%至70%机会），C组4例（< 30%机会）。三组的估计中位生存期分别为17周（95%CI，12至26周）、7周（95%CI，4至12周）和小于1周（95%CI，< 1至3周）。这些生存率差异非常显著（趋势的对数秩检验，卡方检验（2）= 25.65; P <0.0001）。各组的1个月生存率分别为97%、59%和25%.ConclusionWhen oncologists' survival estimates are used，PaP score is able to identify three isoglobular patient groups，independently of the cancer type. PaP评分可能有助于降低晚期癌症患者预后的不确定性。(C)2004年美国临床肿瘤学会
Purpose To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the Palliative Prognostic (PaP) score in patients with advanced cancer under the care of an oncologist.Patients and Methods The PaP score was calculated in 100 consecutive patients with advanced cancer hospitalized under the care of a medical or radiation oncologist at a university teaching hospital in Australia. The attending oncologist predicted the survival duration for the purpose of the scoring. The positive predictive value of the PaP score was evaluated. Survival analysis was performed to compare the survival of the three prognostic groups.Results Assessable survival data were available for 98 patients. The overall median survival was 12 weeks (interquartile range, 7 to 25 weeks). The PaP score divided the heterogeneous patient sample into three isoprognostic groups related to the chance of surviving 1 month, with 64 patients in group A (> 70% chance), 32 patients in group B (30% to 70% chance), and four patients in group C (< 30% chance). The estimated median survival of the three groups was 17 weeks (95% CI, 12 to 26 weeks), 7 weeks (95% CI, 4 to 12 weeks), and less than 1 week (95% CI, < 1 to 3 weeks), respectively. These survival differences were highly significant (log-rank test of trend, chi(2) = 25.65; P < .0001). The 1-month survival of the groups was 97%, 59%, and 25%, respectively.Conclusion When oncologists' survival estimates are used, the PaP score is able to identify accurately three isoprognostic patient groups, irrespective of the cancer type. The PaP score may help reduce the uncertainty of formulating a prognosis in patients with advanced cancer. (C) 2004 by American Society of Clinical Oncology