Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis
Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jlp.2004.12.003
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发表时间：
2005-03-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Yu, DT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ding, YH;Yu, DT
采用故障树分析法对油气输送管道的失效进行了分析。根据管道的失效模式：泄漏和破裂，建立了管道的故障树。定性分析得到了故障树的55个最小割集，定量分析了顶事件的失效概率和基本事件的重要性分析。在传统的故障树分析中，基本事件的概率被视为精确值，由于某些基本事件的模糊性和不精确性，不能反映系统的真实的情况。为了克服这一缺点，提出了一种将专家启发与模糊集理论相结合的方法来评估事件发生的概率。应用该方法对管道安装的失效概率进行了评估，得到管道安装的模糊失效概率为6.4603 × 10（-3）。该方法是处理故障树模糊事件的有效方法。(c)2005爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Failure of oil and gas transmission pipelines was analyzed by fault tree analysis in this paper. According to failure modes of pipeline: leakage and rupture, a fault tree of the pipeline was constructed. Fifty-five minimal cut sets of the fault tree had been achieved by qualitative analysis, while the failure probability of top event and the important analyses of basic events were evaluated by quantitative analysis. In conventional fault tree analysis, probabilities of the basic events were treated as precise values, which could not reflect real situation of system because of ambiguity and imprecision of some basic events. In order to overcome this disadvantage, a new method was proposed which combined expert elicitation with fuzzy set theories to evaluate probability of the events. As an example, failure probability of pipeline installation was assessed by using the proposed method, achieving its fuzzy failure probability of 6.4603 x 10(-3). The method given in this article is effective to treat fuzzy events of FTA. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.