Modeling of regional climate change effects on ground-level ozone and childhood asthma.
Modeling of regional climate change effects on ground-level ozone and childhood asthma.
复制标题
区域气候变化对地面臭氧和儿童哮喘的影响。
DOI：
10.1016/j.amepre.2011.04.017
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发表时间：
2011-09
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Kinney, Patrick L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sheffield, Perry E.;Knowlton, Kim;Carr, Jessie L.;Kinney, Patrick L.
地面臭氧对呼吸系统的不利影响是公认的。臭氧是预计在未来气候变化下最有可能增加的空气污染物。预测未来儿科哮喘急诊就诊与地面臭氧变化相关，比较1990年代至2020年代。这项研究评估了未来0-17岁儿童哮喘急诊就诊的数量，使用（1）基线纽约市大都市区急诊率，（2）臭氧水平和儿科哮喘急诊就诊之间的剂量反应关系，及（3）由全球至区域气候变化及大气化学模式所模拟的2020年代每日8小时最高臭氧浓度的预测。敏感性分析包括人口预测和臭氧前体变化。这项分析发生在2010年。在这个模型中，到2020年代，气候变化可能导致纽约市大都市地区0-17岁儿童夏季与臭氧相关的哮喘急诊就诊率增加7.3%。这种影响随着包括臭氧前体变化而减弱。如果将人口增长包括在内，与臭氧有关的发病率预测值甚至更大。这项分析的结果表明，使用区域气候和大气化学模型，可以预测当地气候变化对特定年龄组和特定疾病结果（如哮喘急诊）的健康影响。应努力改进这类建模，为地方和更大范围的气候变化减缓和适应政策提供信息。
The adverse respiratory effects of ground-level ozone are well-established. Ozone is the air pollutant most consistently projected to increase under future climate change. To project future pediatric asthma emergency department visits associated with ground-level ozone changes, comparing 1990s to 2020s. This study assessed future numbers of asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years using (1) baseline New York City metropolitan area emergency department rates, (2) a dose–response relationship between ozone levels and pediatric asthma emergency department visits, and (3) projected daily 8-hour maximum ozone concentrations for the 2020s as simulated by a global-to-regional climate change and atmospheric chemistry model. Sensitivity analyses included population projections and ozone precursor changes. This analysis occurred in 2010. In this model, climate change could cause an increase in regional summer ozone-related asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years of 7.3% across the New York City metropolitan region by the 2020s. This effect diminished with inclusion of ozone precursor changes. When population growth is included, the projections of morbidity related to ozone are even larger. The results of this analysis demonstrate that the use of regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models make possible the projection of local climate change health effects for specific age groups and specific disease outcomes – such as emergency department visits for asthma. Efforts should be made to improve on this type of modeling to inform local and wider-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation policy.
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影响因子：
8.3
作者：
Jaffe, DH;Singer, ME;Rimm, AA
通讯作者：
Rimm, AA
DOI：
10.1080/00039890409605166
发表时间：
2004-10-01
期刊：
ARCHIVES OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH
影响因子：
--
作者：
Millstein, J;Gilliland, F;Peters, JM
通讯作者：
Peters, JM
影响因子：
8
作者：
Akinbami, Lara J.;Moorman, Jeanne E.;Sondik, Edward J.
通讯作者：
Sondik, Edward J.
DOI：
10.1038/sj.jea.7500287
发表时间：
2003-09-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE ANALYSIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Delfino, RJ;Gong, H;Pellizzari, ED
通讯作者：
Pellizzari, ED
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Bahadori, Katayoun;Doyle-Waters, Mary M;FitzGerald, J Mark
通讯作者：
FitzGerald, J Mark