Climate Change Will Fragment Florida Stone Crab Communities
Climate Change Will Fragment Florida Stone Crab Communities
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DOI：
10.3389/fmars.2022.839767
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发表时间：
2022-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Lauranne Alaerts;T. Dobbelaere;Philip M. Gravinese;E. Hanert
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文献类型：
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作者：
Lauranne Alaerts;T. Dobbelaere;Philip M. Gravinese;E. Hanert
许多海洋物种已被证明受到海洋酸化和海洋变暖的威胁，这正在减少生存，改变行为，并对生理造成限制，特别是在早期生命阶段。商业上重要的佛罗里达石蟹，Menippe cruciaria，是受海水pH值降低和海水温度升高影响的一个物种。在这项研究中，我们确定的影响，降低pH值和升高的温度对分布的石蟹幼虫沿着西佛罗里达陆架。为了了解幼虫的扩散，我们耦合多尺度海洋模型SLIM与幼虫扩散模型。然后，我们进行了一项连通性研究，并通过观察四种不同的情景来评估气候压力源的影响，其中包括代表石蟹幼虫分散的模型：1）由SLIM模拟温度和NEMO-PISCES模拟pH值的当前条件，2）SSP 1 -2.6情景（与当前条件相比，pH值降低-0.037和+0.5 ° C），3）SSP 2 -4.5情景（pH值降低-0.15和+1.5 ° C）和4）SSP 5 -8.5情景（pH值降低-0.375和+3.5 ° C）。我们的研究结果表明，这些气候变化的压力对幼虫扩散和随后的石蟹分布的影响是明确的。我们的研究结果表明，未来的气候变化可能导致石蟹向北移动或进入更深的沃茨。我们还观察到，在较深的沃茨（在本研究中被定义为深度超过30米的非捕鱼区）定居的幼虫数量有所增加，这些水域通常不是商业捕鱼区的一部分。然而，幼虫行进的距离可能会减少，导致自我招募的增加和亚种群规模的减少。产卵期也有可能提前到春季。我们的研究结果表明，在非捕鱼区的栖息地不能作为一个重要的来源的幼虫在捕鱼区（定义为水深< 30米）的栖息地，因为有很少的交换（< 5%的所有交换）之间的两个区域。这些结果表明，在佛罗里达的石蟹种群可能会受到社区破碎化，渔业管理应考虑未来气候变化的潜在影响。
Many marine species have been shown to be threatened by both ocean acidification and ocean warming which are reducing survival, altering behavior, and posing limits on physiology, especially during earlier life stages. The commercially important Florida stone crab, Menippe mercenaria, is one species that is affected by reduced seawater pH and elevated seawater temperatures. In this study, we determined the impacts of reduced pH and elevated temperature on the distribution of the stone crab larvae along the West Florida Shelf. To understand the dispersion of the larvae, we coupled the multi-scale ocean model SLIM with a larval dispersal model. We then conducted a connectivity study and evaluated the impacts of climate stressors by looking at four different scenarios which included models that represented the dispersion of stone crab larvae under: 1) present day conditions as modelled by SLIM for the temperature and NEMO-PISCES for the pH, 2) SSP1-2.6 scenario (-0.037 reduction in pH and +0.5°C compared to present-day conditions), 3) SSP2-4.5 scenario(-0.15 reduction in pH and +1.5°C) and 4) SSP5-8.5 scenario (-0.375 reduction in pH and +3.5°C). Our results show a clear impact of these climate change stressors on larval dispersal and on the subsequent stone crab distribution. Our results indicate that future climate change could result in stone crabs moving north or into deeper waters. We also observed an increase in the number of larvae settling in deeper waters (defined as the non-fishing zone in this study with depths exceeding 30 m) that are not typically part of the commercial fishing zone. The distance travelled by larvae, however, is likely to decrease, resulting in an increase of self-recruitment and decrease of the size of the sub-populations. A shift of the spawning period, to earlier in the spring, is also likely to occur. Our results suggest that habitats in the non-fishing zone cannot serve as a significant source of larvae for the habitats in the fishing zone (defined as water depth< 30 m) since there is very little exchange (< 5% of all exchanges) between the two zones. These results indicate that the stone crab populations in Florida may be susceptible to community fragmentation and that the management of the fishery should consider the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios.