Timing of Antiviral Treatment Initiation is Critical to Reduce SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load
Timing of Antiviral Treatment Initiation is Critical to Reduce SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load
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DOI：
10.1002/psp4.12543
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发表时间：
2020-08-07
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Guedj, Jeremie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Goncalves, Antonio;Bertrand, Julie;Guedj, Jeremie
我们对13名未经治疗的严重急性呼吸综合征-冠状病毒2型感染患者的病毒动力学进行建模，以推断病毒生长参数并预测抗病毒治疗的效果。为了将峰值病毒载量降低两个对数以上，如果在症状发作后给予治疗，药物疗效需要> 90%;如果在症状发作前开始治疗，60%的疗效可能就足够了。鉴于其药代动力学/药效学特性，目前研究的药物可能在6-87%的疗效范围内。如果在早期使用，它们可能有助于控制病毒，但对重症患者可能没有重大影响。
We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than two logs, drug efficacy needs to be > 90% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 60% could be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a range of 6-87% efficacy. They may help control virus if administered very early, but may not have a major effect in severely ill patients.