Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model
Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Levy, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bacmeister, Julio T.;Reed, Kevin A.;Levy, Michael
本研究考察了在水平分辨率约为28公里的全球大气模式中明确解析的热带气旋（tc）特征是如何利用偏倚校正的海面温度（SSTs）预估在更温暖的气候中发生变化的。明确考虑了从RCP8.5缓解到RCP4.5的影响，并与海温预估产生的不确定性进行了比较。我们发现，随着气候变暖，全球总温度活动有所减少。这种减少在RCP4.5下比在RCP8.5下稍微不那么明显。相比之下，预计在气候变暖的情况下，非常强烈的tc的频率将急剧增加，其中大部分增加集中在西北太平洋盆地。与风暴相关的极端降水预计也将变得更加普遍。通过将RCP8.5降低到RCP4.5，可以减少极端降水事件的频率。一般来说，由于未来海温的不确定性，对未来TC活动的更详细的盆地尺度预估存在很大的不确定性。在大多数情况下，这些不确定性大于从RCP8.5缓解到RCP4.5的影响。
This study examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change in a warmer climate using bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The impact of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5 is explicitly considered and is compared with uncertainties arising from SST projections. We find a reduction in overall global TC activity as climate warms. This reduction is somewhat less pronounced under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5. By contrast, the frequency of very intense TCs is projected to increase dramatically in a warmer climate, with most of the increase concentrated in the NW Pacific basin. Extremes of storm related precipitation are also projected to become more common. Reduction in the frequency of extreme precipitation events is possible through mitigation from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. In general more detailed basin-scale projections of future TC activity are subject to large uncertainties due to uncertainties in future SSTs. In most cases these uncertainties are larger than the effects of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5.