The effect of refugees on native adolescents’ test scores: Quasi-experimental evidence from PISA
The effect of refugees on native adolescents’ test scores: Quasi-experimental evidence from PISA
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难民对本土青少年考试成绩的影响：来自 PISA 的准实验证据
DOI：
10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102633
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Semih Tumen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Semih Tumen
现有证据表明，由于劳动力市场较低阶层的机会和回报减少，低技能难民的涌入可能会提高当地青少年的受教育程度。在本文中，我检验了难民涌入是否也会增加在校本地青少年的人力资本积累强度。利用PISA的微观数据，并实施一项旨在利用(I)地区难民强度的时间变化和(Ii)土耳其公共教育系统中的机构设置的准实验性经验战略，我表明，随着叙利亚难民的涌入，土耳其青少年的数学、科学和阅读成绩有所提高。考试成绩的增长主要来自考试成绩分布的下半部分和母亲受教育程度较低的本土青少年。经验设计嵌入了一个框架，其中估计的难民影响可以完全归因于劳动力市场机制。特别是，我使用了2016年后难民青少年更有系统地进入土耳其教育系统的观察，这让我有机会利用2015和2018年的PISA浪潮，将劳动力市场机制的影响与来自教育体验机制的潜在负面力量隔离开来。我的结论是，难民危机后出现的劳动力市场力量，导致当地青少年更认真地对待他们的高中教育，他们通常在学校表现得更差。
Existing evidence suggests that low-skilled refugee influx may increase educational attainment among native adolescents due to reduced opportunities and returns in the lower segment of the labor market. In this paper, I test whether refugee influx can also increase the intensity of human capital accumulation among native adolescents who are enrolled in school. Using the PISA micro data and implementing a quasi-experimental empirical strategy designed to exploit (i) the time variation in regional refugee intensity and (ii) institutional setting in the Turkish public education system, I show that the Math, Science, and Reading scores of Turkish adolescents increased following the Syrian refugee influx. The increase in test scores mostly comes from the lower half of the test score distribution and from native adolescents with lower maternal education. The empirical design embeds a framework where the estimated refugee impact can solely be attributed to the labor market mechanism. In particular, I use the observation that refugee adolescents are enrolled more systematically into the Turkish education system after 2016, which gave me the opportunity to use 2015 and 2018 PISA waves in a way to isolate the effect of the labor market mechanism from the potentially negating force coming from the education experience mechanism. I conclude that the labor market forces that emerged in the aftermath of the refugee crisis have led native adolescents, who would normally perform worse in school, to take their high school education more seriously.